Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 6

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar (Cuenca)

Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Cuenca		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.6	6	Watch
	1.55	3.85	5.5	Watch
	1.73	3.66	4.51
	1.62	3.93	5.01	Watch
	1.59	3.88	5.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.56)	3.78 ↑ (3.68)	5.29 ↓ (5.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Cuenca
58%

Draw
24.5%

El Nacional
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.3%

24.8%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

22.7%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Cuenca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	0%	56.2%

Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Deportivo Cuenca will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). El Nacional will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 32% – 80.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - El Nacional (3.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - El Nacional (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Deportivo Cuenca (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): El Nacional will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Cuenca (votes: 2 - 18.2%). El Nacional (votes: 9 - 81.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bustos B. (G) 16. Gustavino L. 6. Raggio E. 19. Gomez A. (C) 77. Nazareno B. 32. Moreno K. 30. Maccari M. 21. Morocho S. 99. Luna Tobar C. 10. Estupinan L. 17. Rodriguez A.	33. Congo J. (G) 17. Velez C. 26. Mena A. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 99. Reasco D. 7. Chala J. 25. Montano M. 18. Rivera B. 15. Cela A. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 30. Carabali F.
Substitutes
55. Anguisaca F. 8. Calderon R. 14. Chacon J. 25. Lopez A. 22. Mendez J. (G) 5. Noboa D. 18. Piedra M.	56. Benalcazar L. 59. Borja F. 10. Borja J. 1. Chala L. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 5. Flor F. 20. Guisamano J. 77. Hernandez B. 24. Mora F. 28. Puente J.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Perez J. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Morocho S. ⚽, Estupinan L. (A),
16', Cela A. 🟨,
21', Montano M. 🟨,
34', Carabali F. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Calderon R. ↑,
51', Gomez A. 🟨,
56', Rivera B. 🟨,
60', 2 - 0, Luna Tobar C. ⚽,
65', 3 - 0, Calderon R. ⚽, Nazareno B. (A),
67', Rivera B. 🟥,
75', 4 - 0, Luna Tobar C. ⚽,
79', Nazareno B. ↓, Anguisaca F. ↑,
80', Morocho S. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
82', 5 - 0, Estupinan L. (Pen),
83', Moreno K. ↓, Noboa D. ↑,
83', Velez C. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
83', Chala J. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
87', Mena A. ↓, Borja J. ↑,
89', Estupinan L. ↓, Piedra M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Cuenca won 3.

Deportivo Cuenca has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

El Nacional's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Deportivo Cuenca is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Cuenca won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:20. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Cuenca won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.5:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuadorian Copa
12.11.25	LDU Quito - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.11.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
31.10.25	Delfín - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	Deportivo Cuenca - SD Aucas	1:2 ✺
20.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.11.25	El Nacional - Emelec	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	SD Aucas - El Nacional	3:3 ✺
26.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Macará	2:0 ✺
20.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Delfín - El Nacional	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2
15.06.25	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	4:1
16.02.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1
31.08.24	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	1:2
24.03.24	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	2:1
25.11.23	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	1:0
10.06.23	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1

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