Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 19

Date: 15 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Libertad Loja		Técnico Universitario

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.10	2.32	Watch
	2.75	3.00	2.30
	2.80	3.20	2.45	Watch
	3.08	3.30	2.51
	3.14	3.11	2.36	Watch
	3.00	3.15	2.35
	2.95	3.16	2.42	Watch
	2.85	3.05	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.6)	3.13 ↓ (3.15)	2.39 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
31.6%

Draw
29.6%

Técnico Universitario
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

29.4%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

29.2%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Técnico Universitario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Técnico Universitario than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	33.3%	58.3%

Libertad Loja - Técnico Universitario Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Técnico Univ will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Técnico Univ: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.00) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 2. Morinigo R. 25. Lucas M. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 70. Branda V. 66. Estacio J. 30. Bravo J. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 33. Chere A.	12. Morales A. (G) 23. Mesa Mercado E. E. 53. Chilla R. 5. Mena S. 16. Caicedo J. 70. Castano M. 85. Arce Y. 33. Majao J. 10. Johan Bocanegra 7. Estupinan L. (C) 9. Guardia H.
Substitutes
52. Bao A. (G) 11. Batalla H. 8. Castro S. 49. Coronel D. 23. Guisamano J. 7. Orejuela C. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 18. Quinonez Y. 63. Valencia C.	30. Arce K. 11. Arteaga C. 67. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 19. Castillo A. 15. Castillo F. 4. Cordova 25. Delgado B. 77. Garcia C. 1. Razzeto S. (G)
Coaches
Buch J. P.	Redin B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Mesa Mercado E. E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Majao J. ↓, Castillo A. ↑,
49', Caicedo B. 🟨,
56', Estacio J. ↓, Valencia C. ↑,
63', Branda V. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
64', Chere A. ↓, Coronel D. ↑,
64', Cortez Casierra G. J. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
64', Estupinan L. ↓, Arteaga C. ↑,
69', Bravo J. ↓, Pineda Arana X. E. ↑,
72', (Penalty overturned),
81', Lucas M. 🟨,
87', Arce Y. ↓, Castillo F. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Batalla H. ⚽, Patta E. (A),
90+2', Guardia H. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
90+2', Castano M. ↓, Cordova ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 2.

Libertad is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Técnico Univ has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Técnico Univ may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Libertad has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.07.26	LDU Quito - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	1:3 ✺
30.05.26	Manta - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
22.05.26	Independiente del Valle - Libertad Loja	2:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
19.05.26	LDU Portoviejo - Libertad Loja	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.9 TLLWL
- Técnico Universitario
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.07.26	Técnico Universitario - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
06.07.26	Orense - Técnico Universitario	1:2 ✺
01.06.26	Técnico Universitario - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
29.05.26	Juventud Italiana - Técnico Universitario	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.05.26	Técnico Universitario - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.03.26	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	2:1
20.06.25	Libertad Loja - Técnico Universitario	4:1
24.02.25	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	2:2
16.09.24	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	3:0
30.03.24	Libertad Loja - Técnico Universitario	1:0
26.11.23	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	1:1
10.06.23	Libertad Loja - Técnico Universitario	1:0

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