Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 15

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Diaz A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Mushuc Runa		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.25
	1.89	3.5	3.75	Watch
	1.86	3.55	4.34
	1.86	3.51	4.13	Watch
	2	3.3	3.4
	1.86	3.52	4.02	Watch
	1.89	3.5	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.81)	3.45 ↓ (3.59)	3.83 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
48.9%

Draw
26.9%

El Nacional
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

25.9%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

27%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Mushuc Runa - El Nacional Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (G) 4. Haquin L. 3. Parrales J. 29. Quintero D. 31. Mina G. 32. Orejuela C. 14. Tapiero S. 88. Arce L. 5. Davila E. 18. Bryan Angulo 17. Penilla C.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 30. Carabali F. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 5. Flor F. 15. Cela A. 14. Pazmino D. 17. Velez C. 13. Caicedo E. 19. Mejia E. 20. Guisamano J. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
22. Alonso M. 7. Castro S. 21. Cristobal R. 50. Cusme J. 10. Delgado B. 19. Gracia A. 11. Miranda B. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K. 27. Simisterra R. 8. Zambrano A.	59. Borja F. 11. Branda V. 29. Cevallos J. 33. Congo J. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 21. Ledesma A. 8. Martinez F. 55. Mejia J. 25. Montano M. 24. Mora F. 6. Olmedo M. 18. Rivera B.
Coaches
Almeida E.	Asad O. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Borja F. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Haquin L. (Pen),
25', Davila E. 🟨,
31', Carabali F. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
45+3', Cela A. 🟨,
45+5', Quintero D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Borja F. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
46', 1 - 2, Cevallos J. ⚽, Pazmino D. (A),
49', 1 - 3, Reasco D. ⚽, Pazmino D. (A),
51', Caicedo E. 🟨,
54', Parrales J. ↓, Miranda B. ↑,
55', Tapiero S. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
67', Orejuela C. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
67', Bryan Angulo ↓, Alonso M. ↑,
76', Pazmino D. 🟨,
77', Pazmino D. ↓, Rivera B. ↑,
78', Cevallos J. 🟨,
79', Mina G. ↓, Gracia A. ↑,
80', 2 - 3, Miranda B. ⚽,
82', Bedoya A. 🟨,
86', Cevallos J. ↓, Mejia J. ↑,
86', Cela A. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
89', Davila E. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 0.

Mushuc Runa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

El Nacional is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Mushuc Runa has had a series of away games.

Mushuc Runa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 14:31. (average 0.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.9:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Copa Sudamericana
28.05.25	Palestino - Mushuc Runa	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.25	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
17.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:5 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Mushuc Runa	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.05.25	Manta - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 WLLWL
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.05.25	El Nacional - Emelec	2:0 ✺
17.05.25	Deportivo Macará - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
12.05.25	El Nacional - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	LDU Quito - El Nacional	2:2 ✺
25.04.25	El Nacional - Delfín	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.11.24	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	2:2
Ecuadorian Copa
31.10.24	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	2:0
23.10.24	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	1:2
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.05.24	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	1:0
08.10.23	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	2:0
07.05.23	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	0:1
Ecuadorian Copa
22.09.22	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	3:2

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