Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 5

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	El Nacional		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.65	Watch
	2.52	3.2	2.58	Watch
	2.65	3.35	2.67
	2.46	3.31	2.66	Watch
	2.55	3.26	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.05	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.46)	3.25 ↓ (3.31)	2.65 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
36.6%

Draw
28.5%

Emelec
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

27.9%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

27.4%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

El Nacional - Emelec Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Congo J. (G) 5. Flor F. 77. Hernandez B. 18. Rivera B. 30. Carabali F. 17. Velez C. 15. Cela A. 26. Mena A. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 7. Chala J. 99. Reasco D.	12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 27. Leon F. (C) 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 21. Gonzalez A. 4. Barco A. 6. Quintero S. 55. Cevallos J. 28. Solis M. 19. Ruiz J. 17. Ayovi J.
Substitutes
. Benalcazar L. . Borja F. 10. Borja J. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 1. Chala L. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 20. Guisamano J. 2. Mazamba S. 24. Mora F. 28. Puente J.	26. Angulo J. 30. Castillo Saa J. L. 7. Corozo W. 13. Cuero Palacio J. R. 10. Cueva C. 25. Garces R. 70. Lara A. 33. Valero M. (G) 39. Valverde J.
Coaches
Perez J. C.	Duro G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Ayovi J. (Pen),
34', Quintero S. 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Cela A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ayovi J. ↓, Cuero Palacio J. R. ↑,
62', Rivera B. ↓, Cabezas Briones R. A. ↑,
75', Hernandez B. ↓, Borja J. ↑,
75', Leon F. ↓, Cueva C. ↑,
84', Gonzalez A. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
84', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Velez C. ⚽,
90+1', Ruiz J. ↓, Garces R. ↑,
90+1', Solis M. ↓, Corozo W. ↑,
90+3', Perez J. C. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 2.

El Nacional has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Emelec is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Emelec has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:29. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.11.25	SD Aucas - El Nacional	3:3 ✺
26.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Macará	2:0 ✺
20.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Delfín - El Nacional	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWLTL
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.11.25	Deportivo Macará - Emelec	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Emelec - Delfín	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
22.10.25	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.10.25	SD Aucas - Emelec	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
08.10.25	Leones del Norte - Emelec	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.25	Emelec - El Nacional	4:0
25.05.25	El Nacional - Emelec	2:0
18.08.24	Emelec - El Nacional	0:1
17.03.24	El Nacional - Emelec	0:1
16.09.23	El Nacional - Emelec	1:1
17.04.23	Emelec - El Nacional	1:2
12.12.20	Emelec - El Nacional	3:0

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