Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	TVG


	UD Ourense		Bergantiños

	1	X	2
	2.72	2.82	2.58
	2.30	3.03	3.10	Watch
	2.61	2.76	2.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.22)	2.87 ↓ (3)	2.81 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

UD Ourense
35.8%

Draw
31.7%

Bergantiños
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

30.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

29.2%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that UD Ourense's form might have worsened.

Bergantiños has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for UD Ourense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bergantiños than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

UD Ourense - Bergantiños Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Martinez R. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 6).

Now, both teams are in good form.

UD Ourense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, UD Ourense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, UD Ourense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
15.11.25	Real Oviedo B - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Astorga - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	UD Ourense - Deportivo A Coruña B	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	UD Ourense - Pontevedra	1:2 penalties ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
25.10.25	Coruxo - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 WTWLW
- Bergantiños FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
15.11.25	Bergantiños - Atlético Astorga	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Deportivo A Coruña B - Bergantiños	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Bergantiños - Langreo	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Rayo Cantabria - Bergantiños	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Bergantiños - Burgos Promesas	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
16.12.23	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	0:1
27.10.19	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:1
07.04.19	Bergantiños - UD Ourense	2:1
11.11.18	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:0

Upcoming Matches