Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 14

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	UD Ourense		Numancia

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.72	2.52
	2.99	2.74	2.74
	3.49	2.63	2.38	Watch
	2.9	2.63	2.63
	2.83	2.93	2.67
	3	2.62	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.75)	2.71 ↓ (2.88)	2.6 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UD Ourense
30.6%

Draw
34%

Numancia
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

31.3%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

31.8%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Numancia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

UD Ourense - Numancia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
36', 0 - 1, Jony ⚽,
44', 0 - 2, Jony ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 0 - 3, Matos H. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

UD Ourense has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Numancia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

UD Ourense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Numancia could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
29.11.25	Lealtad - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Real Oviedo B - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Astorga - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	UD Ourense - Deportivo A Coruña B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 WWWTW
- CD Numancia
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Numancia - Mallorca	2:3 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
29.11.25	Numancia - Langreo	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Burgos Promesas - Numancia	0:1 ✺
16.11.25	Numancia - Coruxo	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Real Ávila - Numancia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLT

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