Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Universitario (Mexico City)

Referee: Lopez I. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	NBC Universo, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	UNAM		Puebla

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.1	5	Watch
	1.55	4	5.75
	1.65	3.7	5.4
	1.64	3.91	5.71
	1.61	3.91	5.31	Watch
	1.55	3.6	5	Watch
	1.64	3.88	5.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.63)	3.87 ↓ (3.88)	5.35 ↑ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UNAM
58.3%

Draw
24.2%

Puebla
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.4%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

23.3%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

UNAM - Puebla Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. UNAM will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Puebla will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for UNAM: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 4 - 50%). Puebla (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Navas K. (C) 2. Bennevendo P. 6. Nathan Silva 27. Quispe Cordova P. A. 77. Angulo A. 28. Carrasquilla A. 5. Duarte R. 20. Trigos S. 45. Vite P. 17. Ruvalcaba J. 9. Martinez G.	1. Gonzalez J. (G) 4. Orona E. 2. Fedorco J. (C) 6. Diaz N. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 24. Organista A. 18. Gamarra P. 14. Rivas J. 8. Ramirez M. 17. Lozano E. 11. Gomez E.
Substitutes
215. Azuaje A. 263. Juarez A. 7. Lopez R. 22. Medina A. 13. Monroy P. 181. Paul M. (G) 10. Ramsey A. 26. Rico A. 15. Rivas U.	22. Baltazar C. 10. Castillo R. 21. Gonzalez O. 19. Marin R. 7. Monarrez F. 12. Moreno I. 5. Moyano F. 192. Navarro E. 3. Rey L. 33. Rodriguez J. (G)
Coaches
Juarez E.	Cristante H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Vite P. 🟨,
41', Duarte R. 🟨,
45+4', Diaz N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Lozano E. 🟨,
55', Quispe Cordova P. A. ↓, Medina A. ↑,
58', 🟨,
62', Martinez G. ↓, Ramsey A. ↑,
66', Ramirez M. ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
66', Orona E. ↓, Moyano F. ↑,
69', Lozano E. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
70', Organista A. ↓, Gonzalez O. ↑,
72', Trigos S. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 4.

In recent matches, UNAM has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Puebla is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Puebla may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Puebla has had a series of away games.

In this match, UNAM is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in UNAM: Lopez S. (Finger Injury)

There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in UNAM: Lara P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Puebla: Guerra E. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 34:25. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.25	Toluca - UNAM	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	UNAM - Necaxa	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Inter Miami - UNAM	3:1 ✺
02.08.25	UNAM - Atlanta United	3:2 ✺
30.07.25	UNAM - Orlando City	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TTLWW
- Puebla FC
CONCACAF League Cup
20.08.25	Seattle Sounders - Puebla	1:0 penalties ✺
Mexican Liga MX
15.08.25	Puebla - Atlético San Luis	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Tigres UANL - Puebla	7:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
05.08.25	CF Montréal - Puebla	1:2 ✺
01.08.25	Columbus Crew - Puebla	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
07.03.25	Puebla - UNAM	1:3
17.09.24	UNAM - Puebla	1:0
11.02.24	UNAM - Puebla	3:0
22.09.23	Puebla - UNAM	0:2
05.03.23	UNAM - Puebla	2:4
23.09.22	Puebla - UNAM	2:1
08.04.22	Puebla - UNAM	2:2

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