Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Bombo Stadium (Kampala)


	UPDF		Express

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5.15
	1.53	3.62	5.44
	1.58	3.65	5.39	Watch
	1.6	3.3	5
	1.64	3.75	4.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.96)	3.56 ↑ (3.16)	5.18 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UPDF
57.1%

Draw
25.4%

Express
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.6%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

30.4%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UPDF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UPDF's performance.

Express has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Express might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UPDF than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UPDF that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Express than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Express could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

UPDF - Express Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
89', 0 - 1, Ssekajugo E. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Express may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, UPDF is considered a favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, UPDF won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	UPDF	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5
11	Express	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UPDF FC
Ugandan Super League
09.04.26	UPDF - Mbarara City	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Maroons - UPDF	0:0 ✺
11.03.26	UPDF - Vipers	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	UPDF - Kitara	1:1 ✺
03.03.26	NEC FC - UPDF	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTLTL
- Express FC
Ugandan Super League
08.04.26	Express - Police	3:1 ✺
Ugandan Cup
05.04.26	Kitara - Express	1:0 ✺
Ugandan Super League
14.03.26	Express - Uganda Revenue Authority SC	3:1 ✺
11.03.26	Kampala City Council - Express	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Villa - Express	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
26.09.25	Express - UPDF	1:0
24.04.25	Express - UPDF	2:2
06.01.25	UPDF - Express	0:2
27.02.24	Express - UPDF	3:1
27.10.23	UPDF - Express	1:1
11.02.23	Express - UPDF	1:1
01.10.22	UPDF - Express	1:1

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