Match Info
Premier League - Round 22Date: 9 April 2026, ThursdayLocation: Bombo Stadium (Kampala)
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UPDF |
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Mbarara City |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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1.58 |
3.35 |
5.5 |
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 |
1.58 |
3.33 |
5.57 |
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1.61 |
3.38 |
5.67 |
 Watch |
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1.65 |
3 |
5.5 |
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1.58 |
3.32 |
5.96 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.6 ↓
(2.12) |
3.28 ↑
(3.1) |
5.64 ↑
(3.27) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
UPDF
56.4% | Draw
27.6% | Mbarara City
16% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
UPDF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UPDF's performance.Mbarara City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mbarara City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for UPDF than the current prediction. (-19.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UPDF that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mbarara City than the current prediction. (+16.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mbarara City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. UPDF (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
UPDF will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%.
Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 32', 1 - 0, Ochen E. ⚽,
- 37', 1 - 1, Kanyike M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 59', 2 - 1, Kigozi S. ⚽,
- 78', 3 - 1, Kigozi S. ⚽,
Preview
This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League and 13).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 3.UPDF is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).Mbarara City is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0). UPDF is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.In the last 10 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 1.2:0.5).Including home matches between the teams, UPDF won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.4:0.4).
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Standings
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 13 | UPDF | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17:30 | -13 | 17 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 16:34 | -18 | 16 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Ugandan Super League | | | 03.10.25 | Mbarara City - UPDF | 0:1 | | 17.02.25 | Mbarara City - UPDF | 0:1 | | 06.11.24 | UPDF - Mbarara City | 2:1 | | 26.04.24 | Mbarara City - UPDF | 0:0 | | 11.12.23 | UPDF - Mbarara City | 1:1 | | 08.05.22 | Mbarara City - UPDF | 1:2 | | 06.11.21 | UPDF - Mbarara City | 1:0 |
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