Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Bombo Stadium (Kampala)


	UPDF		NEC FC

	1	X	2
	3.5	2.92	2.08
	3.27	2.91	2.2
	3.77	3.05	2	Watch
	3.25	2.8	2.15
	3.54	2.71	2.24	Watch
	3.25	2.71	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (2.83)	2.85 ↓ (3.1)	2.15 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UPDF
26.3%

Draw
31.6%

NEC FC
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

28.5%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

27.4%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UPDF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

NEC FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UPDF than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for UPDF, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NEC FC than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

UPDF - NEC FC Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

UPDF may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, NEC is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, UPDF won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UPDF FC
Ugandan Super League
10.12.25	Buhimba United Saints - UPDF	2:2 ✺
05.12.25	UPDF - Lugazi Municipal	2:0 ✺
02.12.25	Vipers - UPDF	5:1 ✺
25.11.25	UPDF - Villa	0:1 ✺
19.11.25	Calvary - UPDF	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWLLW
- NEC FC
Ugandan Super League
12.12.25	Kampala City Council - NEC FC	2:1 ✺
05.12.25	NEC FC - Vipers	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Maroons - NEC FC	1:1 ✺
25.11.25	NEC FC - Calvary	1:0 ✺
20.11.25	Villa - NEC FC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
04.04.25	UPDF - NEC FC	0:0
24.09.24	NEC FC - UPDF	1:0
13.02.24	UPDF - NEC FC	2:2
20.10.23	NEC FC - UPDF	2:0

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