Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Mathare United		Ulinzi Stars

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.68	2.58
	2.83	2.63	2.78	Watch
	2.8	2.63	2.5
	2.76	2.64	2.69
	2.8	2.66	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.45)	2.65 ↓ (2.8)	2.64 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathare United
32.1%

Draw
33.9%

Ulinzi Stars
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

32%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

30.5%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathare United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Ulinzi Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathare United than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mathare United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Mathare United - Ulinzi Stars Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Makwata J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 1.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 0.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mathare United won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathare United
Kenyan Premier League
10.01.26	Mathare United - Muranga Seal	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Bandari - Mathare United	1:0 ✺
17.12.25	Mathare United - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
12.12.25	Bidco United - Mathare United	0:0 ✺
08.12.25	Mathare United - Mara Sugar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLWTL
- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
11.01.26	Ulinzi Stars - Nairobi United	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Ulinzi Stars - Posta Rangers	3:0 ✺
18.12.25	AFC Leopards - Ulinzi Stars	2:1 ✺
11.12.25	Ulinzi Stars - Kenya CB	1:2 ✺
05.12.25	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
17.05.25	Mathare United - Ulinzi Stars	1:0
01.12.24	Ulinzi Stars - Mathare United	0:0
04.01.23	Ulinzi Stars - Mathare United	3:1
01.05.22	Ulinzi Stars - Mathare United	Ulinzi Stars awarded
16.10.21	Mathare United - Ulinzi Stars	0:1
27.01.21	Ulinzi Stars - Mathare United	2:1
21.09.19	Mathare United - Ulinzi Stars	2:1

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