Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Mara Sugar		Ulinzi Stars

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.78	2.88
	2.53	2.77	2.97	Watch
	2.45	2.63	2.9
	2.46	2.84	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (1.95)	2.76 ↓ (2.95)	2.92 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mara Sugar
36.4%

Draw
32.7%

Ulinzi Stars
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

31%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

25.5%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mara Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mara Sugar's form might have worsened.

Ulinzi Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ulinzi Stars's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Mara Sugar - Ulinzi Stars Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Imbusia A. ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 0, Wafula D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
83', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 13 and 15)

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Mara Sugar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Mara Sugar has had a series of away games.

In this match, Mara Sugar is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mara Sugar won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Mara Sugar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
31.01.26	Kakamega Homeboyz - Mara Sugar	3:3 ✺
24.01.26	Mara Sugar - Police FC	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Gor Mahia - Mara Sugar	3:0 ✺
14.01.26	Police FC - Mara Sugar	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	APS Bomet - Mara Sugar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TLLTT
- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
15.02.26	Ulinzi Stars - Police FC	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Ulinzi Stars - Muranga Seal	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Mathare United - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Ulinzi Stars - Nairobi United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
05.10.25	Ulinzi Stars - Mara Sugar	1:2
04.05.25	Mara Sugar - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
12.01.25	Ulinzi Stars - Mara Sugar	1:0

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