Match Info

GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 14 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Donaustadion (Ulm)

Referee: Haslberger W. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 8
Croatia	SportKlub 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Iceland	Viaplay
Montenegro	Sportklub 8
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 8
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Slovakia	Sport TV2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 3
World	Onefootball app


	Ulm 1846		Nürnberg

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.85
	2.35	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.42	3.47	3.03
	2.39	3.43	3.09	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.88
	2.26	3.56	3.04	Watch
	2.35	3.3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.23)	3.42 ↓ (3.57)	2.95 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulm 1846
40.3%

Draw
27.6%

Nürnberg
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

26.4%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

28.4%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulm 1846 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ulm 1846, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	30.8%	30.8%

Ulm 1846 - Nürnberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ulm will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Nürnberg will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ulm: 12% – 65%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Ortag C. (G) 5. Reichert J. (C) 32. Strompf P. 27. Kolbe N. 18. Stoll L. 26. Maier P. 38. Hyrylainen L. 43. Rosch R. 30. Krattenmacher M. 13. Nelson J. 29. Telalovic S.	1. Reichert J. (G) 17. Castrop J. 31. Knoche R. (C) 4. Jeltsch F. 3. Soares D. T. 14. Goller B. 10. Justvan J. 6. Flick F. 20. Jander C. 34. Forkel D. 36. Schleimer L.
Substitutes
7. Allgeier B. 23. Brandt M. 11. Chessa D. 6. Geyer T. 33. Higl F. 19. Meier J. 9. Roser L. 1. Thiede N. (G) 20. Ulrich L.	8. Duman T. 30. Emreli M. 44. Karafiat O. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 11. Okunuki K. 33. Seidel N. 9. Tzimas S. 2. Villadsen O. 21. Yilmaz B.
Coaches
Worle T.	Klose M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Maier P. 🟨,
27', Stoll L. ↓, Allgeier B. ↑,
45+1', Jander C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Nelson J. ↓, Chessa D. ↑,
46', Maier P. ↓, Brandt M. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Telalovic S. ⚽, Reichert J. (A),
54', Justvan J. 🟨,
58', Forkel D. ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
58', Goller B. ↓, Tzimas S. ↑,
58', Okunuki K. 🟨,
64', 1 - 1, Tzimas S. ⚽, Castrop J. (A),
65', Castrop J. 🟨,
67', Soares D. T. 🟨,
68', Justvan J. ↓, Duman T. ↑,
72', Brandt M. 🟨,
81', Telalovic S. ↓, Ulrich L. ↑,
82', Hyrylainen L. ↓, Higl F. ↑,
88', Ulrich L. 🟨,
90+6', Reichert J. 🟨,
90+9', Ortag C. 🟨,
90+9', 1 - 2, Duman T. (Pen),
90+9', Duman T. 🟨,
90+10', Tzimas S. 🟥,
90+13', Jander C. ↓, Karafiat O. ↑,

Preview

Ulm has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Nürnberg is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ulm could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ulm won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Ulm won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulm 1846
Club Friendly
05.09.24	Augsburg - Ulm 1846	4:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
01.09.24	Paderborn - Ulm 1846	0:0 ✺
25.08.24	Ulm 1846 - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.24	Ulm 1846 - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
09.08.24	Jahn Regensburg - Ulm 1846	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTLLL
- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
31.08.24	Nürnberg - Magdeburg	0:4 ✺
25.08.24	Darmstadt - Nürnberg	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.24	Saarbrücken - Nürnberg	1:2 penalties ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
10.08.24	Nürnberg - Schalke 04	3:1 ✺
03.08.24	Karlsruher - Nürnberg	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
07.08.21	Ulm 1846 - Nürnberg	0:1

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