Match Info

K3 League - Round 9

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Ulsan Complex Stadium (Ulsan)


	Ulsan Citizen		Daejeon Korail

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.25	2.92	2.15	Watch
	3.37	3.06	2.27
	3.19	3.16	2.19	Watch
	3.2	2.75	2.2
	3.26	2.94	2.2
	2.85	3.1	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↑ (2.85)	2.99 ↓ (3.1)	2.22 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulsan Citizen
28.5%

Draw
30.4%

Daejeon Korail
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

29%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.4%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan Citizen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Daejeon Korail has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan Citizen than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daejeon Korail than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Ulsan Citizen - Daejeon Korail Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+4', 0 - 1, Hwang Joon-Seok ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 and 5)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulsan Citizen won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Daejeon Korail is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Ulsan Citizen won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulsan Citizen won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Daejeon Korail	23	12	5	6	33:18	15	41
9	Ulsan Citizen	23	8	4	11	24:26	-2	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan Citizen FC
South Korean K3 League
25.04.26	Gyeongju KH&NP - Ulsan Citizen	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Busan Kyotong - Ulsan Citizen	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Ulsan Citizen - Jeonbuk 2	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Ulsan Citizen - Chuncheon	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Yeoju - Ulsan Citizen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLTWL
- Daejeon Korail
South Korean K3 League
25.04.26	Daejeon Korail - Changwon City	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Yangpyeong - Daejeon Korail	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Daejeon Korail - Siheung	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Daejeon Korail - Pocheon	0:1 ✺
28.03.26	Gyeongju KH&NP - Daejeon Korail	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
05.07.25	Ulsan Citizen - Daejeon Korail	1:2
01.03.25	Daejeon Korail - Ulsan Citizen	3:0
28.09.24	Ulsan Citizen - Daejeon Korail	1:1
31.05.24	Daejeon Korail - Ulsan Citizen	1:1
21.07.23	Daejeon Korail - Ulsan Citizen	1:2
08.04.23	Ulsan Citizen - Daejeon Korail	2:1
18.06.22	Ulsan Citizen - Daejeon Korail	0:0

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