Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 5

Date: 26 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium (Ulsan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 2
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start Triumph
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-korea	Tving, tvN Sports
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
United-kingdom	Sport 24 International
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Ulsan HD		Shanghai Port

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3.8	3.8
	1.8	4	3.75	Watch
	1.83	4	3.96
	1.79	4.02	3.88	Watch
	1.8	3.75	3.6
	1.85	3.84	4.01	Watch
	1.8	4	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.63)	3.92 ↑ (3.33)	3.82 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulsan HD
51.6%

Draw
23.9%

Shanghai Port
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

28%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

28.6%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan HD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ulsan HD's performance.

Shanghai Port has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shanghai Port might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (-15.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ulsan HD that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shanghai Port than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shanghai Port could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	10%	15%

Ulsan HD - Shanghai Port Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Ulsan will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Shanghai Port will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ulsan: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jo Su-Huk (G) 73. Yun Il-Lok 5. Lim Jong-Eun 19. Kim Young-Gwon 13. Lee Myung-Jae 6. Bojanic D. 8. Lee Gyu-Seong 26. Kim Min-Jun 27. Lee Chung-Yong 7. Ko Seung-Beom 18. Joo Min-Kyu (C)	1. Yan Junling (G) 4. Wang Shenchao 13. Wei Zhen 2. Li Ang 32. Li Shuai 8. Oscar 20. Yang Shiyuan 16. Xu Xin 11. Lu Wenjun 30. Popp W. 10. Vargas M.
Substitutes
9. Arabidze G. 31. Esaka A. 20. Hwang Seok-Ho 33. Kang Min-Woo 10. Kim Min-Woo 17. Ludwigson G. 95. Matheus Sales 37. Moon Hyeon-Ho (G) 2. Sim Sang-Min 99. Yago Caju	31. Bao Shimeng 6. Cai Huikang 12. Chen Wei (G) 37. Chen X. 25. Du Jia (G) 23. Fu Huan 9. Gustavo 45. Liu Xiaolong 33. Liu Zhurun 19. Wang Zhenao
Coaches
Kim P.	Muscat K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Vargas M. ⚽, Oscar (A),
23', 0 - 2, Vargas M. ⚽, Oscar (A),
31', Li Ang 🟥,
36', Lu Wenjun ↓, Wang Zhenao ↑,
42', Oscar 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lee Gyu-Seong ↓, Yago Caju ↑,
53', Bojanic D. 🟨,
58', Popp W. 🟨,
58', Kim Min-Jun ↓, Esaka A. ↑,
60', Yan Junling 🟨,
63', Ko Seung-Beom ↓, Ludwigson G. ↑,
68', Xu Xin ↓, Gustavo ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Joo Min-Kyu ⚽, Lee Myung-Jae (A),
78', Lee Chung-Yong ↓, Arabidze G. ↑,
83', 1 - 3, Vargas M. ⚽, Oscar (A),

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 12 and 10).

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Ulsan will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Ulsan won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:8 (average 0.8:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Ulsan won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
23.11.24	Ulsan HD - Suwon	4:2 ✺
10.11.24	FC Seoul - Ulsan HD	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
05.11.24	Johor Darul Takzim - Ulsan HD	3:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
01.11.24	Ulsan HD - Gangwon	2:1 ✺
27.10.24	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTLWW
- Shanghai Port FC
Chinese FA Cup
23.11.24	Shandong Taishan - Shanghai Port	1:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
05.11.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Shanghai Port	3:1 ✺
Chinese Super League
02.11.24	Shanghai Port - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	5:0 ✺
27.10.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Shanghai Port	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
22.10.24	Shanghai Port - Central Coast Mariners	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
21.05.19	Shanghai Port - Ulsan HD	5:0
13.03.19	Ulsan HD - Shanghai Port	1:0
13.03.18	Ulsan HD - Shanghai Port	0:1
07.03.18	Shanghai Port - Ulsan HD	2:2

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