Match Info

Premier League - Round 8

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Metallurg (Zhezqazghan)

Referee: Nozhenko S. (Kaz)


	Ulytau		Yelimay Semey

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.4	3.4	1.88
	3.95	3.65	1.78	Watch
	3.94	3.7	1.81
	4	3.81	1.74	Watch
	4	3.4	1.75
	4.29	3.45	1.83	Watch
	3	2.9	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.17)	3.47 ↑ (3.03)	1.83 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulytau
24%

Draw
26.2%

Yelimay Semey
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

30.4%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

29.5%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Yelimay Semey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Yelimay Semey's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Yelimay Semey, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ulytau - Yelimay Semey Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Yelimay will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nepogodov D. (G) 13. Malikaydar S. 28. Bugulov G. 25. Bukhal G. 3. Keiler S. (C) 90. Martin D. 10. Taubay A. 18. Bougnone A. 14. Harada H. 11. Smith A. 7. Kishi K.	99. Stojkovic V. (G) 3. Higor Gabriel 50. Miladinovic I. 4. Zhumakhanov A. 20. Ashirbek A. 23. Ilic H. 44. Tyulyubay A. 18. Orazov R. (C) 14. Palacio D. 77. Placca F. 11. Sviridov I.
Substitutes
20. Abylaykhan R. 12. Afanasenko V. 4. Chalkin M. 17. Daniyarov B. 22. Kospayev E. 69. Maulenov D. 19. Mukanbetzhanov A. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 9. Serikkul R. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 78. Zakirov T. (G)	2. Adambaev A. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 83. Baygaliev A. 88. Baygaliev A. 5. Belancic M. 27. Berezkin E. 7. Murtazaev R. 10. Payruz Z. 22. Pivkin N. (G) 1. Tsuprikov E. (G) 19. Zhaksylykov A.
Coaches
Mazbaev N.	Karpovich A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Bugulov G. ⚽, Malikaydar S. (A),
31', Martin D. 🟨,
31', Nepogodov D. 🟨,
32', Miladinovic I. 🟨,
32', Ashirbek A. 🟨,
41', Tyulyubay A. 🟨,
42', Kishi K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Placca F. 🟨,
65', Bugulov G. ↓, Chalkin M. ↑,
66', Ilic H. ↓, Berezkin E. ↑,
66', Placca F. ↓, Zhaksylykov A. ↑,
66', Palacio D. ↓, Bakhtiyarov A. ↑,
71', Taubay A. 🟨,
77', Miladinovic I. ↓, Payruz Z. ↑,
83', Smith A. ↓, Serikkul R. ↑,
83', Harada H. ↓, Abylaykhan R. ↑,
90+3', Bougnone A. ↓, Nursultanov K. ↑,
90+3', Kishi K. ↓, Afanasenko V. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 4).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Yelimay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

Yelimay might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Yelimay Semey	25	10	8	7	35:33	2	38
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24:32	-8	32

Last Results with these Odds

Ulytau - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 29.05%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Yelimay Semey - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.56%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	4:3 ET ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Zhetysu - Ulytau	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Taraz - Ulytau	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLWWL
- Yelimay Semey
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Kairat - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Astana	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Zhetysu - Yelimay Semey	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
08.04.26	Turan Turkistan - Yelimay Semey	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
12.07.25	Ulytau - Yelimay Semey	1:1
Kazakh Cup
12.04.25	Ulytau - Yelimay Semey	0:3
Kazakh Premier League
06.04.25	Yelimay Semey - Ulytau	3:0

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