Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Zatula A. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Yelimay Semey		Astana

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.3	2.38	Watch
	2.79	3.45	2.35
	2.51	3.54	2.46	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.38
	2.81	3.44	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.35)	3.37 ↓ (3.38)	2.39 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yelimay Semey
34.3%

Draw
27.3%

Astana
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

27.2%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

26.8%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yelimay Semey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Yelimay Semey, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Astana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Yelimay Semey - Astana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Stojkovic V. (G) 3. Higor Gabriel 50. Miladinovic I. 4. Zhumakhanov A. 20. Ashirbek A. 18. Orazov R. 27. Berezkin E. 14. Palacio D. 23. Ilic H. 11. Sviridov I. 77. Placca F.	93. Condric J. (G) 6. Kasym A. 15. Beysebekov A. 3. Kalaica B. 2. Bartolec K. 9. Islamkhan B. 8. Basic I. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 10. Tomasov M. 72. Basmanov S. 47. Abrayev M.
Substitutes
2. Adambaev A. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 83. Baygaliev A. 88. Baygaliev A. 5. Belancic M. 7. Murtazaev R. 16. Ndreca E. 10. Payruz Z. 22. Pivkin N. (G) 1. Tsuprikov E. (G) 19. Zhaksylykov A. 67. Zhilin A.	22. Abdurasulov A. 20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 7. Karaman D. 81. Karimov R. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 74. Seysen M. (G) 77. Shomko D. 91. Token A. 52. Tokenov T.
Coaches
Karpovich A.	Babayan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Tomasov M. ⚽, Kasym A. (A),
5', 1 - 1, Zhumakhanov A. ⚽, Ilic H. (A),
27', 2 - 1, Placca F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palacio D. ↓, Adambaev A. ↑,
48', 2 - 2, Abrayev M. ⚽,
51', Adambaev A. 🟨,
67', Placca F. ↓, Zhaksylykov A. ↑,
68', Ilic H. ↓, Bakhtiyarov A. ↑,
68', Sviridov I. ↓, Murtazaev R. ↑,
69', Zhumakhanov A. 🟨,
74', Basmanov S. ↓, Karaman D. ↑,
83', Ashirbek A. 🟨,
83', Kasym A. 🟨,
85', Ashirbek A. ↓, Payruz Z. ↑,
88', Abrayev M. ↓, Abdurasulov A. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Yelimay won 0.

Yelimay has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Astana has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Astana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Yelimay won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Yelimay won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1.7).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
6	Yelimay Semey	25	10	8	7	35:33	2	38

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yelimay Semey
Kazakh Premier League
11.04.26	Zhetysu - Yelimay Semey	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
08.04.26	Turan Turkistan - Yelimay Semey	1:4 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	1:4 ✺
16.03.26	Yelimay Semey - Altai Semey	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWT
- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
11.04.26	Astana - Ordabasy	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Kairat - Astana	4:0 ✺
20.03.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Kaisar - Astana	0:0 ✺
08.03.26	Astana - Zhetysu	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
14.09.25	Astana - Yelimay Semey	3:3
30.05.25	Yelimay Semey - Astana	0:2
20.10.24	Yelimay Semey - Astana	0:3
Kazakh League Cup
25.09.24	Astana - Yelimay Semey	1:0 penalties
11.08.24	Yelimay Semey - Astana	0:0
Kazakh Premier League
31.03.24	Astana - Yelimay Semey	0:1

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