Match Info

TURKEY: 1. Lig - Round 28

Date: 6 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu (Istanbul)

Referee: Hasova G. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Umraniyespor		Kocaelispor

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.4	1.85	Watch
	3.5	3.2	1.9
	4.2	3.6	1.83	Watch
	4.26	3.61	1.9
	4.17	3.53	1.85	Watch
	3.9	3.25	1.85
	4.21	3.41	1.86	Watch
	4.2	3.6	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (3.7)	3.45 ↑ (3.32)	1.86 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umraniyespor
22.8%

Draw
27%

Kocaelispor
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

28%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

26.9%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umraniyespor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Kocaelispor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umraniyespor than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	20%	66.7%

Umraniyespor - Kocaelispor Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Umraniyespor will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Kocaelispor will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kocaelispor: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Adiyaman U. (G) 70. Yildirim O. 97. Cavare D. 4. Eser M. 75. Kaplan E. 5. Hoti E. 77. Benny 8. Goksu S. 27. Soukou C. 23. Apaydin F. 9. Yildirim P.	35. Degirmenci G. (G) 22. Oguz A. 5. Appindangoye A. 88. Osmanpasa C. 3. Cinan M. 6. Pedrinho 17. Caglayan O. 4. Vukovic J. 23. Yalcin S. 72. Rivas R. 10. Marcao
Substitutes
20. Babacan A. 10. Bardhi J. 81. Bulbul A. T. 19. Celik B. 22. Ekincier B. 17. Gunes M. 93. Joao L. 16. Sertkaya Y. 35. Topaloglu C. (G) 99. Yildirim O. (G)	70. Alici B. 8. Celik C. 19. Gedik E. 18. Gedik F. 20. Mendes R. 41. Oztonga O. 9. Sagat A. 34. Sen B. (G) 15. Serbest T. 45. Tunali M.
Coaches
Bolukbasi B.	Tasdemir I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Hoti E. 🟨,
30', Caglayan O. (Pen),
34', Oguz A. 🟨,
38', Appindangoye A. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Soukou C. ⚽, Benny (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Cinan M. ↓, Gedik E. ↑,
59', Yalcin S. ↓, Celik C. ↑,
59', Rivas R. ↓, Serbest T. ↑,
60', Oguz A. 🟨,
67', Vukovic J. ↓, Oztonga O. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Celik C. ⚽, Serbest T. (A),
72', Yildirim O. ↓, Bulbul A. T. ↑,
72', Hoti E. ↓, Bardhi J. ↑,
75', Marcao ↓, Tunali M. ↑,
76', Tunali M. 🟨,
77', Apaydin F. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
79', Bardhi J. 🟨,
85', Soukou C. ↓, Ekincier B. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig).

Recent matches Umraniyespor is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Kocaelispor is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Kocaelispor could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Kocaelispor will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Umraniyespor: Glumac T. (Yellow Cards) Oksuz B. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Umraniyespor: Kocaturk Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Kocaelispor: Mendes R. (Muscle Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Umraniyespor won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:1 (average 1.6:0.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Umraniyespor won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0 (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umraniyespor
Turkish First League
02.03.25	Bandırmaspor - Umraniyespor	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Umraniyespor - Sakaryaspor	0:0 ✺
17.02.25	Adanaspor - Umraniyespor	1:1 ✺
13.02.25	Umraniyespor - İstanbulspor	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Umraniyespor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTTWL
- Kocaelispor
Turkish First League
03.03.25	Kocaelispor - İstanbulspor	1:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
25.02.25	Kırklarelispor - Kocaelispor	1:3 ✺
Turkish First League
22.02.25	Şanlıurfaspor - Kocaelispor	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Kocaelispor - Çorum	2:0 ✺
11.02.25	Manisa FK - Kocaelispor	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
19.10.24	Kocaelispor - Umraniyespor	1:0
22.04.24	Umraniyespor - Kocaelispor	1:0
01.12.23	Kocaelispor - Umraniyespor	0:3
08.01.22	Umraniyespor - Kocaelispor	1:0
16.08.21	Kocaelispor - Umraniyespor	0:3

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