Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 1

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Campo Cha das Padeiras (Santarem)


	União de Santarém		Mafra

	1	X	2
	3	2.92	2.28
	3.26	2.99	2.45
	3.19	3.03	2.34	Watch
	3.1	2.88	2.25
	3.18	3.12	2.3	Watch
	2.36	2.85	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.93)	2.97 ↑ (2.9)	2.35 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União de Santarém
30.3%

Draw
30.8%

Mafra
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

31.8%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

31.5%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União de Santarém has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

União de Santarém - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 14. Simoes J. 28. Vinhas D. 33. Rodrigues M. 3. Joao Ricardo 16. Grilo M. 6. Nanco I. 90. Koume S. 11. Goncalves E. F. 17. Aguas G. 20. Ventura B.	33. Silva P. (G) 19. Iheanacho S. 2. Camara M. 3. Alves K. 52. Xico 39. Andrey 46. Sambu B. 90. Moreira R. 6. Pinto R. 7. Matos R. 9. Niang M.
Substitutes
84. Ayiah E. 13. Bura 22. Hidalgo N. (G) 10. Madeira T. 24. Medalli N. 15. Midoes R. 4. Pereira P. 7. Teixeira G. 29. Teixeira R.	10. Fati E. 66. Ferreira J. 11. Goba Zakpa 8. Goncalves V. 1. Lemos F. (G) 30. Ninte M. 27. Precatado J. 29. Rossi R. 23. Saldanha R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Simoes J. ⚽, Vinhas D. (A),
26', Alves K. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Iheanacho S. ⚽, Alves K. (A),
44', 2 - 1, Goncalves E. F. ⚽, Grilo M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Matos R. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
46', Alves K. ↓, Rossi R. ↑,
49', Xico ↓, Precatado J. ↑,
62', Koume S. ↓, Ayiah E. ↑,
64', 🟨,
64', 3 - 1, Grilo M. (Penalty Awarded),
71', Grilo M. 🟨,
72', Rodrigues M. ↓, Bura ↑,
77', Ninte M. 🟨,
79', Andrey 🟨,
82', Pinto R. ↓, Goba Zakpa ↑,
82', Simoes J. 🟨,
86', Goba Zakpa 🟨,
89', Ventura B. ↓, Teixeira G. ↑,
89', Goncalves E. F. ↓, Medalli N. ↑,
90+1', Camara M. 🟨,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Santarém won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Santarém won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Mafra - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.67%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	União de Santarém - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Trofense - União de Santarém	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
16.01.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 LLWWT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Amarante - Mafra	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
16.01.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	0:0
26.10.25	União de Santarém - Mafra	1:2
Taça de Portugal
02.10.22	União de Santarém - Mafra	0:1

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