Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 26 August 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)

Referee: Palomino M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	L1 Max, L1 Play, Liga 1 Play
World	Fanatiz


	Unión Comercio		Cusco

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.52	3.3	2.72	Watch
	2.49	3.35	2.75
	2.49	3.36	2.74	Watch
	2.45	3.25	2.6
	2.61	3.39	2.75	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.56)	3.29 ↑ (3.09)	2.71 (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
37.1%

Draw
28.4%

Cusco
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

29.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

30.8%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Cusco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cusco than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Unión Comercio - Cusco Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Unión Comercio will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Cusco will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cusco: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diaz W. (G) 38. Ramirez E. 93. Riojas H. 3. Paredes T. 34. Aranda S. 10. Hernan Perez 5. Sanchez K. 7. Carranza M. 92. Carranza T. 16. Villamarin R. 9. de Jesus M.	13. Vidal A. (G) 23. Ramirez R. 2. Bilbao J. 6. Perez A. 14. Zevallos J. 5. Aucca M. (C) 16. Valenzuela O. 26. Silva N. 10. Colman I. 22. Colitto L. 9. Ramos L.
Substitutes
33. Aguirre J. 24. Javier Navea 90. Jimenez J. 21. Luque Rios J. 31. Serra P. 30. Torres J. 19. Uribe C. 17. Vargas D. 29. Zeta H.	17. Cardenas P. 27. Fernandez R. 30. Guzman P. 24. Olaya S. 33. Solis C. (G) 19. Tamariz A. 11. Tevez J. 20. Vasquez A.
Coaches
Oropeza J.	Rondelli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
14', 1 - 0, de Jesus M. ⚽, Villamarin R. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Silva N. ⚽, Colman I. (A),
34', 2 - 1, Colitto L. (Own goal),
44', 2 - 2, Colitto L. ⚽, Aucca M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Aucca M. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
56', 2 - 3, Ramos L. ⚽,
58', Hernan Perez ↓, Javier Navea ↑,
64', 3 - 3, de Jesus M. (Pen),
64', Ramos L. ↓, Tevez J. ↑,
68', Aranda S. ↓, Aguirre J. ↑,
68', Sanchez K. ↓, Vargas D. ↑,
73', Zevallos J. ↓, Cardenas P. ↑,
74', Paredes T. 🟨,
80', Carranza M. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
80', Ramirez E. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
90+1', Paredes T. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 2.

Unión Comercio is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cusco is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 19-32.

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
21.08.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Unión Comercio	3:1 ✺
17.08.24	Unión Comercio - Sport Huancayo	0:1 ✺
09.08.24	Cajamarca - Unión Comercio	3:1 ✺
04.08.24	Unión Comercio - FBC Melgar	2:1 ✺
30.07.24	Alianza Lima - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLLWL
- Cusco FC
Peruvian Liga 1
20.08.24	Cusco - Universitario de Deportes	1:1 ✺
15.08.24	Alianza Atlético - Cusco	1:1 ✺
11.08.24	Cusco - Universidad César Vallejo	2:1 ✺
05.08.24	Cusco - Sport Boys	3:1 ✺
29.07.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cusco	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
29.03.24	Cusco - Unión Comercio	1:0
04.08.23	Unión Comercio - Cusco	2:1
06.03.23	Cusco - Unión Comercio	2:1
Peruvian Liga 2
03.07.22	Cusco - Unión Comercio	4:1
03.04.22	Unión Comercio - Cusco	1:0
Peruvian Liga 1
18.11.19	Cusco - Unión Comercio	4:0
02.06.19	Unión Comercio - Cusco	0:1

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