Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 21 August 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Legario F. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	L1 Max, L1 Play, Liga 1 Play
World	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	1.3	5	8	Watch
	1.3	4.75	7.75
	1.3	5.3	9.5
	1.3	5.01	9.43
	1.34	4.93	8.45	Watch
	1.29	4.8	8.5
	1.35	5.21	9.05	Watch
	1.29	5.25	9.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.45)	5.03 ↑ (4.54)	8.75 ↑ (6.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
70.9%

Draw
18.5%

Unión Comercio
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

20.8%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5%

20.7%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Garcilaso's performance.

Unión Comercio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Garcilaso that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Unión Comercio Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Unión Comercio will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Vargas M. (G) 22. Canales E. 13. Lojas J. (C) 4. Caicedo L. 24. Gordillo A. 19. Cornejo M. 20. Ramirez D. 14. Diez C. 11. Gentile G. 18. Carando D. 9. Ugarriza A.	12. Diaz W. (C) 17. Vargas D. 3. Paredes T. 93. Riojas H. 33. Aguirre J. 19. Uribe C. 5. Sanchez K. 7. Carranza M. 10. Hernan Perez 30. Torres J. 29. Zeta H.
Substitutes
27. Bazan J. 10. Chicaiza L. 36. Cuero M. 31. Gonzales E. 1. Penny D. (G) 21. Perleche E. 17. Rodriguez P. 8. Ventura F. 7. Yovera A.	34. Aranda S. 92. Carranza T. 9. de Jesus M. 24. Javier Navea 15. Jimenez O. 21. Luque Rios J. 38. Ramirez E.
Coaches
Duro G.	Oropeza J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Carando D. ⚽, Gentile G. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Zeta H. ⚽, Hernan Perez (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, Ugarriza A. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Torres J. ↓, Jimenez O. ↑,
46', Vargas D. ↓, Ramirez E. ↑,
56', Paredes T. 🟨,
62', Sanchez K. ↓, Carranza T. ↑,
64', Canales E. 🟨,
64', Cornejo M. ↓, Gonzales E. ↑,
67', 3 - 1, Gordillo A. ⚽, Ugarriza A. (A),
74', Ramirez D. ↓, Ventura F. ↑,
79', Uribe C. 🟨,
80', Gentile G. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
80', Carando D. ↓, Cuero M. ↑,
83', Hernan Perez ↓, Javier Navea ↑,
83', Zeta H. ↓, de Jesus M. ↑,
87', Riojas H. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 18).

Recent matches Deportivo Garcilaso is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Unión Comercio is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Deportivo Garcilaso is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Deportivo Garcilaso won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
16.08.24	Universitario de Deportes - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:1 ✺
10.08.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Atlético	0:1 ✺
03.08.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:2 ✺
29.07.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cusco	0:2 ✺
26.07.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Sport Boys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LLWLW
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
17.08.24	Unión Comercio - Sport Huancayo	0:1 ✺
09.08.24	Cajamarca - Unión Comercio	3:1 ✺
04.08.24	Unión Comercio - FBC Melgar	2:1 ✺
30.07.24	Alianza Lima - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
21.07.24	Carlos A. Mannucci - Unión Comercio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
15.03.24	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:4
22.10.23	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:2
03.06.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - Unión Comercio	2:2

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