Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Referee: Ortiz J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Unión Magdalena		Atlético Bucaramanga

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.8	2.88	Watch
	2.35	2.87	3.1
	2.8	2.8	2.9	Watch
	2.8	2.75	3.05
	2.77	2.72	2.97	Watch
	2.38	2.9	3.1
	2.7	2.92	2.84	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.57)	2.82 ↓ (3)	2.97 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
35.2%

Draw
33.2%

Atlético Bucaramanga
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

30.5%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

31.9%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Atlético Bucaramanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Bucaramanga will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Unión Magdalena (1.81) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - Bucaramanga (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Bucaramanga (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Bucaramanga will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Magdalena (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Bucaramanga (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restrepo E. (G) 4. Murillo D. 5. Payares M. 33. Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 6. Ortiz D. 10. Sarmiento J. (C) 20. Giraldo J. 28. Mercado J. 26. Tello J. 21. Marquez R. 17. Blanco R.	1. Quintana A. (G) 6. Jimenez M. S. 2. Mena J. (C) 25. Zapata C. 16. Artunduaga A. 22. Fabry 15. Chavez D. 11. Jhon Vasquez 17. Andrade A. 30. Cardenas S. 97. Penaranda A.
Substitutes
7. Aleman J. 11. Aragon O. 22. Barreto O. 9. Diaz K. 34. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 18. Molina F. 8. Sanchez V.	4. Garcia J. 7. Londono K. . Mosquera J. 27. Pons L. 23. Romana C. 12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G) 20. Zarate A.
Coaches
Garcia A.	Alvarez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Ortiz D. 🟨,
27', Marquez R. 🟨,
30', Giraldo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Ortiz D. ↓, Sanchez V. ↑,
58', Blanco R. 🟨,
66', Cardenas S. ↓, Londono K. ↑,
67', Artunduaga A. ↓, Pons L. ↑,
67', Penaranda A. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
67', Chavez D. ↓, Zarate A. ↑,
76', Andrade A. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
78', Blanco R. ↓, Aragon O. ↑,
78', Marquez R. ↓, Diaz K. ↑,
78', Murillo D. ↓, Aleman J. ↑,
85', Zapata C. 🟨,
85', 🟨,
90', Giraldo J. ↓, Barreto O. ↑,
90+8', 1 - 0, Sarmiento J. (Pen),
90+9', Jimenez M. S. 🟨,
90+14', 1 - 1, Pons L. ⚽,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Magdalena won 0.

Unión Magdalena is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Bucaramanga is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Unión Magdalena could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Unión Magdalena won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 4:12 (average 0.4:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Magdalena won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
16.04.25	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pereira	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
26.03.25	Junior Barranquilla - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTLLL
- Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera A
17.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Envigado	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza CEIF	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	Racing - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
01.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Colo-Colo	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.4 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
21.10.23	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2
06.05.23	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	3:0
12.08.22	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	1:0
15.02.22	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:1
24.10.19	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2
02.05.19	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	0:1
Colombian Copa
26.04.17	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	1:0

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