Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Quadrangular - Round 3

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Américo Montanini (Bucaramanga)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Atlético Bucaramanga		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.4	6.5	Watch
	1.55	3.45	6.9	Watch
	1.6	3.75	6.38
	1.78	3.38	4.72	Watch
	1.5	3.94	6.5	Watch
	1.55	3.6	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.78)	3.59 ↑ (3.38)	6.28 ↑ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Bucaramanga
58.9%

Draw
26.1%

Fortaleza CEIF
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.7%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

27.1%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Bucaramanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Bucaramanga's performance.

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Bucaramanga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	0%	6.7%

Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bucaramanga (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Bucaramanga will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quintana A. (G) 19. Gutierrez A. 2. Mena J. (C) 29. Henao C. 25. De Las Salas C. 17. Gil Mosquera F. A. 20. Zarate A. 7. Londono K. 6. Charrupi G. 10. Sambueza F. 27. Pons L.	1. Garcia Jordan (G) 18. Balanta J. 23. Escorcia L. 6. Diaz Y. 4. Marulanda J. 8. Ricaurte A. (C) 21. Ramiirez S. 20. Valencia S. 33. Arroyo A. 19. Aristizabal E. 24. Salas J.
Substitutes
70. Charrupi F. 28. Flores L. 77. Jhon Vasquez 33. Medina G. 14. Mosquera J. 23. Romana C. 12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G)	11. Amaya A. 15. Cuero S. 16. Florez K. 2. Lasso M. 7. Martinez J. 27. Mosquera C. 13. Pajaro R. 12. Santander C. (G) 10. Velasquez J.
Coaches
Alvarez L.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Aristizabal E. ⚽, Arroyo A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gil Mosquera F. A. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
46', Charrupi G. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Sambueza F. ⚽,
65', Zarate A. 🟨,
68', Salas J. ↓, Cuero S. ↑,
71', Marulanda J. 🟨,
73', Londono K. ↓, Jhon Vasquez ↑,
80', Zarate A. ↓, Charrupi F. ↑,
81', Aristizabal E. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
81', Arroyo A. ↓, Florez K. ↑,
86', Balanta J. ↓, Pajaro R. ↑,
87', De Las Salas C. ↓, Medina G. ↑,
89', 1 - 2, Ramiirez S. ⚽, Ricaurte A. (A),

Preview

In recent matches, Bucaramanga has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fortaleza's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bucaramanga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bucaramanga is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bucaramanga won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bucaramanga won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza CEIF - the odds 4.72 are the expected chance of winning is 19.81%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera A
22.11.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0 ✺
19.11.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0 ✺
13.11.25	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Bucaramanga	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportivo La Equidad	2:1 ✺
29.10.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLWL
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
22.11.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Fortaleza CEIF	3:0 ✺
18.11.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
13.11.25	Unión Magdalena - Fortaleza CEIF	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Junior Barranquilla	1:1 ✺
29.10.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
26.09.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1
13.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza CEIF	4:0
09.11.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0
22.04.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:2

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