Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio 15 de Abril (Santa Fe)

Referee: Lobo Medina L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	AFA Play, ESPN Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Unión Santa Fe		Independiente

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.85	3.1	Watch
	2.40	3.10	2.95
	2.52	3	3.05	Watch
	2.55	3.08	3.18
	2.52	3.06	3.04
	2.5	3	3.1
	2.5	3.04	3.08	Watch
	2.47	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.22)	3.02 ↓ (3.09)	3.06 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Unión Santa Fe
37.9%

Draw
31.3%

Independiente
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

30.3%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

29.5%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Santa Fe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Unión Santa Fe - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Mansilla M. (G) 15. Pintado J. 4. Rocha M. 26. Luduena J. 18. Ayala L. 20. Palacios J. 17. Mosqueira J. 5. Menossi L. 22. Cuello B. 19. Estigarribia M. 25. Tarragona C. (C)	33. Rey R. (G) 29. Godoy L. 13. Fedorco J. 35. Arrayago J. 22. Zabala F. 16. Perez Curci M. 23. Marcone I. (C) 8. Meza M. 7. Montiel S. 6. Avila C. 24. Palais J.
Substitutes
31. Aguirre M. 36. Aimar M. 38. Cerrudo V. J. 44. Fagioli T. 8. Giaccone E. 11. Luna Diale M. 10. Malcorra I. 40. Meuli L. (G) 34. Peresutti M. 12. Pitton B. 43. Ramirez E. 27. Rubio T.	19. Abaldo M. 4. Arias S. 10. Cabral L. 2. Calderon F. 32. Martinez D. 39. Martino R. 77. Mele S. (G) 14. Millan L. 9. Morales I. 30. Parmo T. 34. Tempone F. 36. Valdez S.
Coaches
Madelon L.	Viera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Menossi L. 🟨,
21', Avila C. ↓, Morales I. ↑,
37', Godoy L. 🟨,
45+2', Palais J. ↓, Abaldo M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Zabala F. ↓, Martino R. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Estigarribia M. ⚽, Mosqueira J. (A),
52', 1 - 1, Montiel S. ⚽, Godoy L. (A),
57', 1 - 2, Meza M. ⚽, Abaldo M. (A),
59', Cuello B. ↓, Luna Diale M. ↑,
59', Mosqueira J. ↓, Malcorra I. ↑,
65', Tarragona C. 🟨,
68', Estigarribia M. ↓, Ramirez E. ↑,
70', Marcone I. 🟨,
71', Arrayago J. 🟨,
75', Abaldo M. 🟨,
79', Perez Curci M. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
80', Palacios J. ↓, Aguirre M. ↑,
80', Montiel S. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
80', Ayala L. ↓, Pitton B. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 8th in the Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Clausura ~ Playoffs1/8~finals) and 6th in the Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Clausura ~ Playoffs1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Unión: Solari A. (Inactive) Vargas L. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Independiente: De Irastorza J. (Inactive) Valdez S. (Inactive).

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Unión has recorded 2 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:23 (averaging 0.9:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Unión against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:11 goals (averaging 0.8:1.1 per game).

Outrights of Argentinian Liga Profesional for now

Independiente: 3.87% Union de Santa Fe: 1.47%

Last Results with these Odds

Unión Santa Fe - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.18%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Independiente - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.51%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Santa Fe
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Unión Santa Fe - Instituto Córdoba	3:2 ✺
28.08.26	Unión Santa Fe - Sarmiento de Junín	4:1 ✺
21.08.26	Aldosivi - Unión Santa Fe	1:3 ✺
15.08.26	San Lorenzo - Unión Santa Fe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWWL
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.09.26	Independiente - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Central Córdoba - Independiente	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Independiente - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Independiente - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0 ✺
17.08.26	Lanús - Independiente	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Argentina
22.05.26	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente	0:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.03.26	Independiente - Unión Santa Fe	4:4
05.11.24	Independiente - Unión Santa Fe	3:0
24.06.23	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente	3:0
19.09.22	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente	0:1
25.10.21	Independiente - Unión Santa Fe	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
24.04.21	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente	0:0

Upcoming Matches