Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Union Berlin		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.40	3.10	Watch
	2.35	3.40	2.95
	2.33	3.30	2.95	Watch
	2.38	3.50	3.22
	2.35	3.78	2.8	Watch
	2.30	3.35	3.15
	2.32	3.43	3.13	Watch
	2.38	3.45	3.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.12)	3.45 ↓ (3.83)	3.05 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
40.9%

Draw
27.7%

Schalke 04
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

24.8%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

24.9%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	30%	30%

Union Berlin - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Schalke will win (votes: 6 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 1 - 50%). Schalke (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Schalke (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (2.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Union Berlin (2.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 2 - 50%). Schalke (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 18. Juranovic J. 14. Querfeld L. 2. Uduokhai F. 15. Rothe T. 6. Kemlein A. 20. Aebischer M. 9. Burcu L. 8. Khedira R. (C) 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 29. Latte Lath E.	1. Karius L. (G) 5. Becker T. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 20. Adamu J. 23. El-Faouzi S. 13. Tanaka S. 8. Gosens R. 21. Ljubicic D. 24. Aouchiche A. 19. Karaman K. (C)
Substitutes
49. Guther L. 19. Haberer J. 27. Ljubicic M. 31. Raab M. (G) 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T. 24. Skov R. 28. Trimmel C. 4. Van Den Bosch Z.	43. Ayhan M. 14. Bachmann J. 33. Becker V. 29. Dina Ebimbe J. 10. Dzeko E. 7. Hwang Hee-Chan 22. Muller K. (G) 38. Vozar L. 39. Wober M.
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Ljubicic D. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
25', 0 - 1, Gosens R. ⚽,
45', Kemlein A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kemlein A. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
46', Burcu L. ↓, Ljubicic M. ↑,
46', 0 - 2, Aouchiche A. ⚽, Adamu J. (A),
74', Ljubicic M. 🟨,
76', Latte Lath E. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
78', Uduokhai F. 🟨,
80', Gosens R. ↓, Wober M. ↑,
80', Karaman K. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,
80', Adamu J. ↓, Hwang Hee-Chan ↑,
85', Aebischer M. ↓, Haberer J. ↑,
90+1', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Skov R. ↑,
90+4', Aouchiche A. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 2, Skarke T. ⚽, Rothe T. (A),
90+9', Karius L. 🟨,
90+13', 1 - 3, Wober M. ⚽, Hwang Hee-Chan (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Burke O. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Friedrich M. (Injury) Ilic A. (Illness) Markgraf A. (Knee Injury) Nsoki S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Schalke: Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Schallenberg R. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Imeri K. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Schalke: 0.32% Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Schalke	4	1	2	1	3:4	-1	5
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Last Results with these Odds

Union Berlin - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.83%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
29.08.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Eintracht Braunschweig - Union Berlin	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Union Berlin - Ipswich Town	2:4 ✺
02.08.26	Union Berlin - Cagliari	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTWLT
- Schalke 04
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Schalke 04 - Bayern Munich	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Augsburg - Schalke 04	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
24.08.26	Hallescher - Schalke 04	2:5 AET ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Schalke 04 - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
01.08.26	Hessen Kassel - Schalke 04	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
19.02.23	Union Berlin - Schalke 04	0:0
27.08.22	Schalke 04 - Union Berlin	1:6
13.02.21	Union Berlin - Schalke 04	0:0
18.10.20	Schalke 04 - Union Berlin	1:1
07.06.20	Union Berlin - Schalke 04	1:1
29.11.19	Schalke 04 - Union Berlin	2:1

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