Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 31

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday


	Lancaster City		Leek Town

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.25
	1.99	3.62	3.28
	2.01	3.7	3.32	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.2
	2.03	3.64	3.33
	2	3.6	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.07)	3.54 ↓ (3.56)	3.26 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
46%

Draw
25.9%

Leek Town
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

26.1%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

26.5%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Leek Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Lancaster City - Leek Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Bailey C. ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, Heath C. ⚽,
41', 2 - 1, Evangelinos N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 12).

In recent matches, Lancaster has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leek is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lancaster may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lancaster could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Lancaster won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16
17	Leek	11	2	4	5	22:23	-1	10

Last Results with these Odds

Lancaster City - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.88%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
10.02.26	Lancaster City - Rushall Olympic	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Guiseley - Lancaster City	0:0 ✺
03.02.26	Lancaster City - Hyde United	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Lancaster City - Ashton United	3:2 ✺
17.01.26	Ilkeston - Lancaster City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTTWL
- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
07.02.26	Leek Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Ilkeston - Leek Town	1:3 ✺
24.01.26	Hednesford Town - Leek Town	1:0 ✺
20.01.26	Leek Town - Hyde United	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Leek Town - Cleethorpes Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
11.10.25	Leek Town - Lancaster City	0:1
18.01.25	Leek Town - Lancaster City	2:1
01.10.24	Lancaster City - Leek Town	0:1

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