Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 15

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Lancaster City		Leek Town

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.45	2.80
	2.19	3.71	2.74
	2.19	3.79	2.87	Watch
	2.16	3.65	2.70
	2.18	3.63	2.98
	2.13	3.60	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.06)	3.64 ↓ (3.72)	2.82 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
42.4%

Draw
25.2%

Leek Town
32.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.1%

25%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

24.7%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Leek Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Lancaster City - Leek Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
28', 0 - 1, Griffiths J. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Flanagan J. ⚽,
44', 1 - 2, Heath C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 10th and 18th).

Lancaster is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Leek has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Lancaster may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Leek has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Lancaster is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Lancaster has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lancaster against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:2 goals (averaging 1:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	16	6	2	8	20:29	-9	20
18	Leek	14	3	5	6	29:31	-2	14

Outrights of English NPL Premier Division for now

Lancaster: 0.76%

Last Results with these Odds

Lancaster City - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.08%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
13.10.26	Lancaster City - Stockton Town	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	Warrington Town - Lancaster City	2:2 ✺
07.10.26	Avro - Lancaster City	5:3 ✺
03.10.26	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Whitby Town - Lancaster City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTLWW
- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
10.10.26	Leek Town - Ashton United	2:2 ✺
06.10.26	Leek Town - Warrington Rylands	3:3 ✺
22.09.26	Leek Town - Hyde United	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Redcar Athletic - Leek Town	3:2 ✺
01.09.26	Leek Town - Warrington Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
14.02.26	Lancaster City - Leek Town	2:1
11.10.25	Leek Town - Lancaster City	0:1
18.01.25	Leek Town - Lancaster City	2:1
01.10.24	Lancaster City - Leek Town	0:1

Upcoming Matches