Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 19

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday


	Lancaster City		Stockton Town

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.35	2.92
	2.25	3.54	2.86	Watch
	2.16	3.3	2.98
	2.5	3.35	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 (2.25)	3.39 ↓ (3.54)	2.82 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
40.6%

Draw
27%

Stockton Town
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

26.2%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

25.2%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

The chances for Stockton Town have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stockton Town than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Lancaster City - Stockton Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Scott J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 1, Evangelinos N. ⚽,
62', Fairclough A. 🟥,
90+6', 1 - 2, King L. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 10).

Lancaster has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Stockton Town has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Lancaster won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Lancaster City - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.28%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
08.11.25	Cleethorpes Town - Lancaster City	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Lancaster City - Whitby Town	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Warrington Town - Lancaster City	3:2 ✺
18.10.25	Lancaster City - Hednesford Town	0:0 ✺
11.10.25	Leek Town - Lancaster City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TTLTW
- Stockton Town
English NPL Premier Division
08.11.25	Warrington Town - Stockton Town	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Stockton Town - Ilkeston	0:4 ✺
28.10.25	Hednesford Town - Stockton Town	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
25.10.25	Clitheroe - Stockton Town	4:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
18.10.25	Stockton Town - Ashton United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
15.01.25	Stockton Town - Lancaster City	1:0
10.09.24	Lancaster City - Stockton Town	2:1

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