Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 14

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished


	Lancaster City		Stockton Town

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.30	2.55
	2.28	3.20	2.60
	2.30	3.75	2.56
	2.38	3.8	2.59	Watch
	2.25	3.70	2.50
	2.30	3.50	2.49
	2.35	3.50	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.28)	3.54 ↑ (3.25)	2.55 (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
39%

Draw
25.5%

Stockton Town
35.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.5%

27%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

26.5%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Stockton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stockton Town than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Lancaster City - Stockton Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, Lawson D. ⚽,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 12th and 17th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Stockton Town could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Lancaster has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Lancaster has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:5 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lancaster against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 3:3 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	16	6	2	8	20:29	-9	20
19	Stockton	15	3	3	9	18:28	-10	12

Outrights of English NPL Premier Division for now

Lancaster: 0.76% Stockton: 0.76%

Last Results with these Odds

Stockton Town - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 34.45%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
10.10.26	Warrington Town - Lancaster City	2:2 ✺
07.10.26	Avro - Lancaster City	5:3 ✺
03.10.26	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Whitby Town - Lancaster City	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Cleethorpes Town - Lancaster City	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLWWL
- Stockton Town
English NPL Premier Division
10.10.26	Stockton Town - United of Manchester	2:2 ✺
06.10.26	Stockton Town - Bury	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Hyde United - Stockton Town	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Stockton Town - Bamber Bridge	5:2 ✺
12.09.26	Warrington Rylands - Stockton Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
18.04.26	Stockton Town - Lancaster City	1:1
22.11.25	Lancaster City - Stockton Town	1:2
15.01.25	Stockton Town - Lancaster City	1:0
10.09.24	Lancaster City - Stockton Town	2:1

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