Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 14

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Salvo M. (Chi)


	Universidad de Chile		Deportes Concepción

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.1	5.5	Watch
	1.53	4	5.75
	1.55	3.95	5.9	Watch
	1.56	4.27	6.12
	1.52	4.27	5.79	Watch
	1.5	3.8	5.5
	1.55	4	5.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.43)	4.06 ↓ (4.48)	5.74 ↓ (6.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad de Chile
60.9%

Draw
22.9%

Deportes Concepción
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

20.8%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

20.2%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad de Chile has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universidad de Chile, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Universidad de Chile - Deportes Concepción Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Universidad de Chile (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Universidad de Chile will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castellon G. (G) 17. Hormazabal F. 2. Calderon F. 31. Tamayo B. 14. Morales M. 20. Aranguiz C. (C) 29. Barrera L. 28. Arce A. 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 11. Eduardo Vargas 23. Vasquez Gonzalez I. A.	25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 21. Rodriguez N. 37. Grillo F. 3. Carrasco D. 18. Rodriguez Y. 22. Davila Carvajal M. 19. Jara A. 20. Henriquez J. 30. Espinoza E. 32. Larrivey J. (C)
Substitutes
19. Altamirano J. 10. Assadi L. 27. Bolano A. 6. Fernandez N. 18. Lucero J. 16. Rojas E. 24. Romero L. 1. Toselli C. (G) 4. Vargas D.	24. Cavalleri M. 1. Cesar (G) 9. Escobar C. 7. Gillard A. 26. Romero L. 16. Sandoval M. 13. Suarez C. 29. Varas D. 11. Vejar B.
Coaches
Gago F.	Diaz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Barrera L. 🟨,
21', Eduardo Vargas 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Eduardo Vargas (Penalty Awarded),
44', Vasquez Gonzalez I. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Jara A. ↓, Sandoval M. ↑,
56', Espinoza E. ↓, Gillard A. ↑,
58', Rodriguez Y. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Sandoval M. ⚽,
63', Arce A. ↓, Assadi L. ↑,
63', Vasquez Gonzalez I. A. ↓, Altamirano J. ↑,
64', Calderon F. 🟨,
65', Morales M. 🟨,
72', Aranguiz C. ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
74', Carrasco D. 🟥,
84', 2 - 1, Eduardo Vargas ⚽, Hormazabal F. (A),
86', Henriquez J. 🟨,
86', Tamayo B. 🟨,
89', Hormazabal F. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
90+1', Davila Carvajal M. ↓, Vejar B. ↑,
90+1', Henriquez J. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
90+5', Grillo F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga de Ascenso).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Deportes Concepción may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Universidad de Chile has had a series of away games.

In this match, Universidad de Chile is the clear favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. De Chile	23	12	6	5	35:19	16	42
9	D. Concepcion	23	9	4	10	25:26	-1	31

Last Results with these Odds

Universidad de Chile - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 65.2%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad de Chile
Chilean Primera Division
17.05.26	Cobresal - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
Chilean Copa de la Liga
10.05.26	Unión La Calera - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Deportes La Serena - Universidad de Chile	0:5 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
25.04.26	Universidad de Chile - Universidad Católica	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Everton de Viña - Universidad de Chile	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWWT
- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Primera Division
24.05.26	Deportes Concepción - Huachipato	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Deportes Concepción - Everton de Viña	0:2 ✺
Chilean Copa de la Liga
09.05.26	Colo-Colo - Deportes Concepción	3:1 ✺
04.05.26	Deportes Concepción - Huachipato	0:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
23.04.26	Palestino - Deportes Concepción	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLLLW

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