Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 11

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	União São João		Portuguesa Santista

	1	X	2
	3.5	2.72	2.18
	3.67	2.6	2.23
	3.65	2.69	2.24	Watch
	3.3	2.7	2.25
	3.22	3.33	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (2.99)	2.81 ↓ (3.13)	2.22 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União São João
26.3%

Draw
32.5%

Portuguesa Santista
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

29%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

28.4%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União São João has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Portuguesa Santista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União São João than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portuguesa Santista than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

União São João - Portuguesa Santista Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 1 - 0, Bruninho ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

União São João has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portuguesa Santista is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Portuguesa Santista may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Portuguesa Santista could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

União São João - the odds 2.99 are the expected chance of winning is 30.38%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Portuguesa Santista - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.63%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União São João de Araras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
01.03.26	Itapirense - União São João	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Desportivo Brasil - União São João	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	União São João - Marília	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	União São João - União Suzano	1:0 ✺
11.02.26	Rio Branco de Americana - União São João	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTLWT
- Portuguesa Santista
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
01.03.26	Portuguesa Santista - Catanduva	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Portuguesa Santista - Itapirense	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Claro	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Desportivo Brasil - Portuguesa Santista	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWLWW

União São João - Portuguesa Santista: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide