Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 2

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo Nº5 Comp Desp Dr Antº Pime Machado (Guimarães)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Vitoria Guimarães B		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	3.15	2.92	2.22
	3.32	3.06	2.37
	3.26	3.04	2.31	Watch
	3.25	2.88	2.2
	3.37	3.06	2.25
	3.2	2.9	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.82)	2.98 ↑ (2.85)	2.26 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães B
28.3%

Draw
30.9%

Belenenses
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

31.9%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

32.4%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães B than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Belenenses, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vitoria Guimarães B - Belenenses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Guilherme (G) 76. Alcobia 79. Carvalho D. 82. Dias F. 73. Miguel Vaz 88. Nogueira M. 93. Rika 80. Rocha R. (C) 96. Rodrigo Silva 32. Tepe M. 50. Zeega	99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 27. Barros E. 23. Bruninho 7. Eduardo W. 17. Horta Leitao D. 21. Morgado T. 4. Nuno Tomas (C) 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 19. Valente A.
Substitutes
67. Bruma 97. Carreira D. 60. Deivid M. 81. Fernandes J. (G) 57. Martins J. 75. Oliveira A. 55. Rebelo D. 83. Sampaio J. 56. Verdi S.	14. Afonso A. 66. Cesinha 13. Cuca 77. Da Silva Moreira N. J. 31. David Rebelo 11. Duda 2. Machado J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 9. Souza E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Paulo D. ⚽, Bandarra M. (A),
22', Morgado T. 🟨,
30', Rika 🟨,
35', Dias F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Rika ↓, Oliveira A. ↑,
58', Valente A. ↓, Souza E. ↑,
58', Eduardo W. ↓, Afonso A. ↑,
61', Tepe M. ↓, Bruma ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Dias F. ⚽,
71', Paulo D. 🟨,
75', 2 - 1, Nogueira M. ⚽,
77', Horta Leitao D. ↓, David Rebelo ↑,
82', Bandarra M. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
82', Morgado T. ↓, Da Silva Moreira N. J. ↑,
84', Carvalho D. ↓, Verdi S. ↑,
90+2', Zeega ↓, Deivid M. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 2, Afonso A. ⚽,

Preview

Guimarães B has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Belenenses is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Belenenses is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães B
Portuguese Liga 3
06.02.26	Académica Coimbra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Sanjoanense - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:3 ✺
18.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Fafe	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Trofense - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LWWLW
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
07.02.26	Belenenses - Trofense	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Caldas - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Belenenses - Amora	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLWWW

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