Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 1

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Trofense

	1	X	2
	2.02	2.98	3.55
	2.09	3.06	4.05
	2.06	3.07	3.88	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.4
	2.16	3.15	3.47	Watch
	1.96	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.77)	3.03 ↓ (3.27)	3.68 ↓ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
44.6%

Draw
30.4%

Trofense
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

27.9%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

27%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Belenenses's form might have worsened.

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Belenenses, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Trofense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Belenenses - Trofense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 39. Pinto A. 4. Nuno Tomas (C) 27. Barros E. 20. Paulo D. 21. Morgado T. 23. Bruninho 19. Valente A. 17. Horta Leitao D. 7. Eduardo W.	13. Silva N. (C) 29. Joel 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 4. Basto H. 5. Cunha G. 6. Daniel J. 8. Reko Silva 89. Nuninho 10. Feliz 7. Ivandro 19. Diarra M.
Substitutes
66. Cesinha 13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 11. Duda 89. Gastao J. 2. Machado J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 9. Souza E. 5. Teixeira J.	14. Assis Cardoso R. H. 15. Borges F. 22. Duarte E. 9. Hachadi K. 2. Oliveira J. 77. Roka 78. Ruca 12. Teopisto (G) 30. Welisson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Joel 🟨,
61', Ivandro ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
64', Bruninho ↓, David Rebelo ↑,
64', Eduardo W. ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
72', Joel ↓, Duarte E. ↑,
75', Paulo D. 🟨,
75', Valente A. ↓, Cuca ↑,
82', Bandarra M. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
82', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Duda ↑,
88', Diarra M. ↓, Roka ↑,
88', Feliz ↓, Hachadi K. ↑,

Preview

Belenenses is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Trofense has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Belenenses is considered a favorite.

We predict that Belenenses will win today's game, with odds of 1.76.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Belenenses won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Including home match between the teams, Belenenses won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Caldas - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Belenenses - Amora	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Covilhã - Belenenses	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWWW
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Trofense - Marco 09	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Sanjoanense - Trofense	2:4 ✺
04.01.26	Trofense - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Varzim - Trofense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Belenenses - Trofense	3:0

Belenenses - Trofense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide