Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 9

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Cha das Padeiras (Santarem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	União de Santarém		Trofense

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.05	2.58
	2.7	3.15	2.77
	2.48	3.2	2.83	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3
	2.61	3.02	2.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.27)	3.06 ↑ (2.9)	2.74 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União de Santarém
36.4%

Draw
30%

Trofense
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

31.4%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

30.3%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União de Santarém has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Trofense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for União de Santarém, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Trofense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

União de Santarém - Trofense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Hidalgo N. (C) 17. Aguas G. 13. Bura 11. Goncalves E. F. 3. Joao Ricardo 6. Nanco I. 4. Pereira P. 5. Rodeia M. 7. Teixeira G. 20. Ventura B. 28. Vinhas D.	13. Silva N. (C) 4. Basto H. 18. Diagne O. 19. Diarra M. 10. Feliz 79. Lopes L. 89. Nuninho 8. Reko Silva 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 78. Ruca 44. Saldanha F.
Substitutes
84. Ayiah E. 16. Grilo M. 90. Koume S. 10. Madeira T. 24. Medalli N. 15. Midoes R. 58. Monteiro D. 78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 14. Simoes J.	15. Borges F. 6. Daniel J. 29. Joel 26. Lobo G. 2. Oliveira J. 11. Paciencia V. 97. Rendeiro R. (G) 77. Roka 30. Welisson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Rodeia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Teixeira G. ↓, Ayiah E. ↑,
46', Ventura B. ↓, Medalli N. ↑,
66', Feliz ↓, Lobo G. ↑,
66', Lopes L. ↓, Roka ↑,
71', Goncalves E. F. ↓, Koume S. ↑,
76', Rodeia M. ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,
77', Diarra M. 🟨,
81', 0 - 1, Diarra M. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Diagne O. ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
82', Nuninho ↓, Daniel J. ↑,
83', Oliveira J. 🟨,
87', Saldanha F. 🟨,
90', Diarra M. ↓, Welisson ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 7 and 8).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Santarém won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
03.04.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Varzim - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	União de Santarém - Amarante	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLLW
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
03.04.26	Trofense - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Trofense - Académica Coimbra	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
14.02.26	Trofense - União de Santarém	1:2

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