Match Info

BRAZIL: Mineiro - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	América Mineiro		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.25	2.85	2.2
	3.63	3.02	2.17
	3.53	3.04	2.21
	3.4	3	2.15
	3.43	3.15	2.11
	3.25	2.85	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↓ (3.7)	2.99 ↓ (3.35)	2.17 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
26.9%

Draw
30.8%

Cruzeiro
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

27.7%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

26.5%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+3%)

América Mineiro - Cruzeiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Mendes (G) 18. Julio Cesar 45. Ricardo Silva 3. Lucao (C) 6. Marlon 88. Cauan Barros 15. Kaua Diniz 10. Martin Benitez 11. Adyson 78. Renato Marques 22. Figueiredo	1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 8. Matheus Henrique 29. Romero L. (C) 21. Eduardo 19. Kaio Jorge 9. Gabriel Barbosa 7. Dudu
Substitutes
25. David Lopes 5. Elizari F. 8. Felipe Amaral 9. Jonathas 12. Jori (G) 23. Mariano 42. Miqueias 29. Paulinho 4. Pedro Barcelos 14. Rafa Barcelos 71. Samuel 33. Yago Santos	11. Bolasie Y. 88. Christian 26. Diaz L. 23. Fagner 14. Gamarra M. 41. Leo Aragao (G) 16. Lucas Silva 3. Marlon 17. Marquinhos 75. Rodriguinho 25. Villalba L. 5. Walace
Coaches
William Batista	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', Cauan Barros 🟨,
24', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
29', Kaua Diniz 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Marlon ⚽, Adyson (A),
40', 1 - 1, Romero L. ⚽, Eduardo (A),
42', Romero L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kaua Diniz ↓, Miqueias ↑,
58', Eduardo 🟨,
62', Figueiredo 🟨,
65', Kaiki ↓, Marlon ↑,
65', Eduardo ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
68', Julio Cesar ↓, Mariano ↑,
68', Adyson ↓, Yago Santos ↑,
68', Renato Marques ↓, Jonathas ↑,
75', William Furtado 🟨,
81', Dudu ↓, Christian ↑,
81', Kaio Jorge ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
81', Martin Benitez ↓, Elizari F. ↑,
90+4', Marlon 🟨,
90+7', Jonathas (Pen),
90+11', Miqueias 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, Elizari F. (Pen),
1, William Furtado (Pen),
2, Cauan Barros (Pen),
2, Matheus Henrique (Pen),
3, Jonathas (Pen),
3, Marlon (Pen),
4, Figueiredo (Pen),
4, Gabriel Barbosa (Pen),
5, Marlon (Pen),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Last 5 head-to-head matches América MG won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Cruzeiro will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches América MG won 9 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 26:25 (average 1.3:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams América MG won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:14 (average 1.2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
16.02.25	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
12.02.25	América Mineiro - Aymorés	0:0 ✺
08.02.25	Tombense - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
05.02.25	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Betim - América Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTLTW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
16.02.25	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
12.02.25	Democrata GV - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:2 ✺
05.02.25	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Cruzeiro - Uberlândia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
16.02.25	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	1:1
05.02.25	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	1:1
15.02.24	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	0:2
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.23	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	1:1
14.05.23	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	0:4
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
19.03.23	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1
11.03.23	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	0:2

Upcoming Matches