Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 8

Date: 27 June 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Uruguay Montevideo		Atletico Fenix Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.60	3.25	1.85
	3.85	3.15	1.85
	3.98	3.35	1.94
	4.1	3.39	1.88	Watch
	3.8	3.2	1.92
	3.56	3.67	1.94
	3.8	3.15	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↑ (2.9)	3.31 ↑ (3)	1.89 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Uruguay Montevideo
24%

Draw
27.6%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

29.8%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

30.7%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Uruguay Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Uruguay Montevideo's form might have worsened.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atletico Fenix Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Uruguay Montevideo than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Uruguay Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atletico Fenix Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Uruguay Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Uruguay Montevideo will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Fenix will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Colman G. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Maldonado L. ⚽,
41', 1 - 2, Centurion L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+4', 3 - 2, ⚽,
90+6', 🟥,
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 6).

Recent form of Uruguay Montevideo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fenix has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Fenix is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Uruguay Montevideo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Fenix	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	19:31	-12	17

Last Results with these Odds

Uruguay Montevideo - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 30.88%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
21.06.26	Rentistas - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	1:3 ✺
07.06.26	Tacuarembó - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
30.05.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0 ✺
24.05.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWL
- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	2:2 ✺
13.06.26	Colón Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1 ✺
06.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:1 ✺
31.05.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Rentistas	1:1 ✺
25.05.26	Miramar Misiones - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
15.03.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1
24.08.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1
04.06.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Uruguay Montevideo	2:0

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