Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 5

Date: 6 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Capurro (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Atletico Fenix Montevideo		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.20	2.95	3.00
	2.10	3.15	3.15
	2.32	2.99	3.28
	4.58	3.53	1.74	Watch
	2.25	2.88	3.10
	2.34	3.12	3.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.21)	3.1 ↓ (3.19)	2.9 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
36.3%

Draw
30.8%

River Plate Montevideo
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

29.1%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

29.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atletico Fenix Montevideo's form might have worsened.

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atletico Fenix Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Triver F. ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, de Marco S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
59', 🟥,
75', 2 - 1, ⚽,
81', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fenix won 1.

In recent matches, Fenix has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

River Plate is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fenix could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fenix won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:29. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fenix won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 0.9:1.1).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30
7	Fenix	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Last Results with these Odds

Atletico Fenix Montevideo - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.99%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 28.91%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
31.05.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Rentistas	1:1 ✺
25.05.26	Miramar Misiones - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1 ✺
17.05.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Tacuarembó	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Plaza Colonia - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTLWW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
31.05.26	River Plate Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	0:2 ✺
23.05.26	Rentistas - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	River Plate Montevideo - Paysandú	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	River Plate Montevideo - Paysandú	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
29.09.24	River Plate Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4:3
07.07.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
16.03.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
16.11.23	River Plate Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:0
08.04.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
20.08.22	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:2
20.03.22	River Plate Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3:1

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