Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 3

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	La Luz		Uruguay Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.82	3.1
	2.54	2.85	3.21
	2.34	2.7	3.69	Watch
	2.45	2.63	3
	2.45	3.03	3.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.38)	2.81 ↓ (2.99)	3.21 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
38.2%

Draw
32.9%

Uruguay Montevideo
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

30.4%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

29.9%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Uruguay Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Uruguay Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Uruguay Montevideo will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, de Leon G. ⚽,
45+3', Ortiz L. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 2 - 0, Sosa F. ⚽,
72', 🟥,
74', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Luz won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Uruguay Montevideo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, La Luz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, La Luz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	19:31	-12	17

Last Results with these Odds

Uruguay Montevideo - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.5%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
17.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - La Luz	0:0 ✺
09.05.26	La Luz - Colón Montevideo	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Cerrito - La Luz	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTTLW
- Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
16.05.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	2:2 ✺
08.05.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Tacuarembó	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
11.04.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:2
11.10.25	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	0:0
19.07.25	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0
19.10.24	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	1:0
10.07.24	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0
16.03.24	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0
03.09.22	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	1:2

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