Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 4

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports


	Uruguay Montevideo		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.45	2.92	2.08
	3.61	3	2.17
	3.66	2.86	2.24	Watch
	3.5	2.75	2.15
	3.52	2.88	2.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (3.29)	2.88 ↓ (2.99)	2.15 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Uruguay Montevideo
25.8%

Draw
31.7%

Plaza Colonia
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

30.6%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

29.5%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Uruguay Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Plaza Colonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Uruguay Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Uruguay Montevideo - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
67', 1 - 0, Goyeni d. A. M. A. ⚽,
90+4', 🟥,
90+8', 2 - 0, Lima C. ⚽,

Preview

Uruguay Montevideo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Plaza Colonia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Uruguay Montevideo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Plaza Colonia has had a series of home games.

Plaza Colonia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Uruguay Montevideo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Plaza Colonia	21	9	5	7	26:21	5	32
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	19:31	-12	17

Last Results with these Odds

Plaza Colonia - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.57%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
24.05.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	2:2 ✺
08.05.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Tacuarembó	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTLTW
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Segunda Division
22.05.26	Plaza Colonia - Oriental de La Paz	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Colón Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Plaza Colonia - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1 ✺
24.04.26	Plaza Colonia - Oriental de La Paz	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Plaza Colonia - Paysandú	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.09.24	Uruguay Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	3:0
05.06.24	Plaza Colonia - Uruguay Montevideo	0:1
Uruguay Copa
30.10.23	Uruguay Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2

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