Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 2

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Uruguay Montevideo		Cerrito

	1	X	2
	2.28	2.92	3
	2.36	3	3.1
	2.37	3.07	3.12	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3
	2.3	2.94	3.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.36)	2.95 ↓ (3.02)	3.06 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Uruguay Montevideo
39.2%

Draw
30.9%

Cerrito
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

30.8%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

31%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Uruguay Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Cerrito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Uruguay Montevideo aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', 0 - 2, ⚽,
59', 1 - 2, ⚽,
69', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cerrito may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Uruguay Montevideo has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:10. (average 2.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Uruguay Montevideo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	19:31	-12	17

Last Results with these Odds

Cerrito - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 29.87%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
08.05.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Tacuarembó	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LTWLW
- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
10.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Cerrito	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Cerrito - La Luz	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	4:1 ✺
05.04.26	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
05.04.26	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1
05.10.25	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1
12.07.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	0:0
06.04.25	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	1:3
04.12.24	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	3:1
30.11.24	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	2:2
08.09.24	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	3:0

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