Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 - Round 23

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Aragon TV


	Utebo		Alfaro

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.75	5.7
	1.54	3.73	6.44
	1.52	3.85	5.97	Watch
	1.53	3.4	6
	1.49	3.6	6.62
	1.52	3.6	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.35)	3.66 ↓ (4.23)	6.18 ↓ (7.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utebo
60.2%

Draw
25%

Alfaro
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.1%

21.4%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.7%

20%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utebo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Utebo's form might have worsened.

Alfaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utebo than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Utebo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfaro than the current prediction. (-4%)

Utebo - Alfaro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alfaro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Delgado J. ⚽,
6', 2 - 0, Aguado A. ⚽,
8', 3 - 0, Aguado A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+7', 4 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Utebo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alfaro is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Utebo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Utebo is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Utebo will win today's game, with odds of 1.3.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utebo won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Utebo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Utebo FC	5	1	3	1	5:5	0	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Utebo FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
08.02.26	Basconia - Utebo	4:0 ✺
01.02.26	Utebo - Náxara	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Amorebieta - Utebo	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Beasain - Utebo	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Utebo - UD Logroñés	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 LWWWW
- CD Alfaro
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
08.02.26	Alfaro - Beasain	1:3 ✺
31.01.26	Sestao - Alfaro	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Alfaro - Gernika	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Alavés B - Alfaro	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Alfaro - Eibar B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
05.10.25	Alfaro - Utebo	1:0
15.02.25	Utebo - Alfaro	2:0
06.10.24	Alfaro - Utebo	4:2
05.03.23	Alfaro - Utebo	1:2
15.10.22	Utebo - Alfaro	2:1

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