Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Echavarria P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TNT Sports, TNT Sports Premium
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Vélez Sársfield		Deportivo Riestra

	1	X	2
	1.91	2.75	5.5	Watch
	1.93	2.95	4.6
	1.95	2.88	4.85	Watch
	1.99	2.89	5.41
	1.98	2.87	5.03
	1.91	2.7	5
	1.94	2.83	5.84	Watch
	1.9	2.9	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.92)	2.85 ↓ (2.98)	5.15 ↑ (4.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
48.6%

Draw
33.1%

Deportivo Riestra
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

31.6%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

31.9%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Deportivo Riestra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Riestra than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	5.6%	5.6%

Vélez Sársfield - Deportivo Riestra Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Vélez (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Vélez Sársfield will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vélez Sársfield will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Vélez (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Montero A. (G) 4. Garcia J. 2. Mammana E. 16. Magallan L. 3. Gomez E. (C) 8. Robertone L. 29. Aliendro R. 50. Andrada T. 22. Lanzini M. 7. Machuca I. 23. Monzon F.	1. Arce I. (G) 15. Sansotre N. 22. Paz C. 24. Mino F. 19. Randazzo J. 5. Ramirez P. 27. Goitia J. 16. Watson N. 7. Alonso A. 9. Herrera J. (C) 10. Diaz A.
Substitutes
35. Arias M. 5. Baeza C. 19. Cristaldo L. 49. Dominguez D. 48. Feler L. 15. Godoy D. 1. Marchiori T. (G) 14. Pineiro R. 6. Quiros A. 9. Romero B. 32. Silvero T. 17. Veron A.	6. Barbieri M. 8. Benegas N. 36. Bracamonte M. 3. Caro Nicolas 29. Dramisino A. 32. Flores G. 20. Garcia M. 12. Lopez I. (G) 14. Monje P. 40. Obredor G. 28. Sayavedra R. 35. Stringa A.
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Benitez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Mino F. 🟨,
40', Robertone L. 🟨,
40', Goitia J. 🟨,
41', Machuca I. 🟨,
41', Watson N. 🟨,
45+1', Gomez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Diaz A. ↓, Obredor G. ↑,
55', Watson N. ↓, Monje P. ↑,
71', Robertone L. ↓, Baeza C. ↑,
71', Machuca I. ↓, Godoy D. ↑,
71', Goitia J. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
80', Garcia J. ↓, Silvero T. ↑,
84', Herrera J. ↓, Benegas N. ↑,
84', Alonso A. ↓, Dramisino A. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).

Vélez is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Deportivo Riestra has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vélez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vélez is the team to beat.

There will not play in Vélez: Escobar S. (Inactive) Gordon J. (Inactive) Valdes D. (Injury)

There will not play in Deportivo Riestra: Diaz A. (Inactive) Gallo R. (Injury) Tovo E. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Vélez won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 48.94%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Deportivo Riestra - the odds 4.83 are the expected chance of winning is 19.47%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.02.26	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Defensa y Justicia - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Vélez Sársfield - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WTWTW
- Deportivo Riestra
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.02.26	Deportivo Riestra - Huracán Buenos Aires	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Deportivo Riestra - Newells Old Boys	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
05.02.26	Deportivo Riestra - Deportivo Maipú	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.02.26	Barracas Central - Deportivo Riestra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.10.25	Deportivo Riestra - Vélez Sársfield	2:2
28.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Deportivo Riestra	0:1
11.11.24	Deportivo Riestra - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
15.02.24	Deportivo Riestra - Vélez Sársfield	1:2

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