Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Vélez Sársfield 2		Sarmiento de Junín 2

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.35	7.3	Watch
	1.35	4.4	8.55
	1.37	4.19	8.54	Watch
	1.33	4	8
	1.34	4.25	8.35
	1.57	3.6	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.57)	4.13 ↑ (3.6)	7.59 ↑ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield 2
65.9%

Draw
22.1%

Sarmiento de Junín 2
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

24.7%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

22.6%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vélez Sársfield 2's performance.

Sarmiento de Junín 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sarmiento de Junín 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield 2 than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarmiento de Junín 2 than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Vélez Sársfield 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
68', 2 - 0, ⚽,
76', 3 - 0, ⚽,
87', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Reserve League (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).

Vélez 2 has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sarmiento 2's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vélez 2 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vélez 2 is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Vélez 2 will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Vélez 2 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 2:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vélez 2 won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield 2
Argentinian Reserve League
29.04.26	Argentinos Juniors 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Ferro 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	1:2 ✺
15.04.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Aldosivi 2	4:0 ✺
08.04.26	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:1 ✺
01.04.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Unión Santa Fe 2	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWW
- Sarmiento de Junín 2
Argentinian Reserve League
28.04.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - River Plate 2	2:3 ✺
22.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	0:1 ✺
14.04.26	Racing Club 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	1:1 ✺
09.04.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Instituto 2	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Argentinos Juniors 2	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
08.10.25	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:1
06.05.25	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	2:0
16.07.23	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	3:1
20.08.22	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:2

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