Match Info

J1 League - Round 11

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	21:00	Stan Sport
China	18:00	K-Ball
Hong Kong	18:00	M Plus Live
Japan	19:00	DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
	6.5	5	1.37	Watch
	6.75	4.60	1.42
	6.5	4.55	1.4	Watch
	7.13	5.26	1.44
	6.4	4.98	1.44	Watch
	6.95	5.2	1.41
	6.51	4.93	1.45	Watch
	6.8	4.8	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.69 ↓ (6.75)	4.92 ↑ (4.5)	1.42 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
14.1%

Draw
19.2%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
66.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

13.7%

20.5%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.9%

19.4%

67.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

V Varen Nagasaki - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goto M. (G) 25. Ominami T. 29. Arai I. 31. Doi K. 22. Onaga H. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 41. Hasegawa M. 23. Yoneda S. 10. Matheus Jesus 19. Sawada T. 99. Jonathan Junior	1. Osako K. (G) 15. Nakano S. 4. Araki H. 7. Higashi S. 5. Arai N. 6. Kawabe H. (C) 35. Nakajima Y. 18. Suga D. 29. Asano T. 10. Suzuki A. 22. Haller S.
Substitutes
21. Diego Pituca 6. Egawa Y. 13. Hatano G. (G) 88. Masuyama A. 34. Matsumoto T. 50. Shindo R. 24. Yamada R. 18. Yamasaki R. 7. Yasuda K.	23. Ayukawa S. 11. Kato M. 8. Kawamura T. 37. Kim Ju-Sung 45. Kobayashi S. 32. Koshimichi S. 14. Matsumoto T. 99. Ouchi I. (G) 9. Yengi K.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Gaul B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', Ominami T. ↓, Egawa Y. ↑,
27', Onaga H. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Onaga H. ⚽, Jonathan Junior (A),
45', 2 - 0, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Sawada T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Suga D. ↓, Kim Ju-Sung ↑,
46', Asano T. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
54', Sawada T. ↓, Yasuda K. ↑,
60', Jonathan Junior 🟨,
62', Nakajima Y. ↓, Ayukawa S. ↑,
66', Haller S. 🟥,
71', Arai N. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Yasuda K. ⚽, Matheus Jesus (A),
76', Yoneda S. ↓, Masuyama A. ↑,
76', Jonathan Junior ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
76', Onaga H. ↓, Shindo R. ↑,
76', Suzuki A. ↓, Kawamura T. ↑,
90+7', 4 - 0, Yasuda K. ⚽, Matheus Jesus (A),

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 15th and 1st in the Promotion - AFC Champions League League phase).

Recent results have been tough for V-Varen Nagasaki (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Hiroshima is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

V-Varen Nagasaki could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, V-Varen Nagasaki has faced a series of away games on the road.

Hiroshima holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for V-Varen Nagasaki: Campbell N. (Hamstring Injury) Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness) Radotic L. (Inactive) Takahata K. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Hiroshima: Yamasaki T. (Knee Injury).

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, V-Varen Nagasaki has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:9 (averaging 0.3:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for V-Varen Nagasaki against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 1:5 goals (averaging 0.5:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	7	2	1	25:6	19	23
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	10	2	3	5	11:18	-7	9

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 19.38% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.43%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
17.10.26	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	JEF United Chiba - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Gainare Tottori - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLLT
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
17.10.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.10.26	Tokyo Verdy - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Iwaki	4:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Tochigi City - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
18.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0
06.02.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:3
11.08.18	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0
28.04.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:2

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