Match Info

Serie D - Group A - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Vado		Asti

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.9	5.9
	1.46	3.89	6.64	Watch
	1.44	3.82	6.89
	1.5	3.75	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (2.23)	3.84 ↑ (3.43)	6.36 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vado
62%

Draw
23.7%

Asti
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

26.4%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

25.4%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vado's performance.

Asti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Asti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vado than the current prediction. (-19.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Asti than the current prediction. (+17.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Asti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vado - Asti Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 3 - 0, ⚽,
69', 🟥,
80', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+3', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group A (Play Offs: ) and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group A (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vado won 2.

Vado is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Asti's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Vado is the obvious favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Vado won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Vado won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Asti	6	3	1	2	8:7	1	10

Last Results with these Odds

Vado - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.7%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vado
Italian Serie D - Group A
04.01.26	Unione Sanremo - Vado	3:0 ✺
21.12.25	Biellese - Vado	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Vado - NovaRomentin	6:0 ✺
07.12.25	Cairese - Vado	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Vado - Lavagnese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWWTW
- ASD Asti
Italian Serie D - Group A
04.01.26	Asti - Gozzano	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Asti - Club Milano	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Ligorna - Asti	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Asti - Sestri Levante	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Saluzzo - Asti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
14.09.25	Asti - Vado	0:2
13.04.25	Asti - Vado	1:1
01.12.24	Vado - Asti	3:1
07.01.24	Asti - Vado	0:0
10.09.23	Vado - Asti	0:1
30.04.23	Asti - Vado	1:0
14.04.22	Asti - Vado	1:0

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