Match Info

Serie D - Group A - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday


	Vado		Lavagnese

	1	X	2
	1.4	3.9	7.1
	1.63	3.64	4.87	Watch
	1.42	4.17	8.02
	1.41	4	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.74)	3.93 ↑ (3.58)	6.75 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vado
62.9%

Draw
23.5%

Lavagnese
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

25.3%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

24.8%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vado's performance.

Lavagnese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lavagnese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vado than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lavagnese than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lavagnese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vado - Lavagnese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
71', 1 - 0, Vita D. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vado won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Vado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vado is seen as the favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Vado won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Vado won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:3. (average 2.5:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Vado - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 52.04%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vado
Italian Serie D - Group A
26.11.25	Vado - Gozzano	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Chisola - Vado	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Valenzana Mado - Vado	1:3 ✺
02.11.25	Ligorna - Vado	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Vado - Varese	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWLW
- USD Lavagnese 1919
Italian Serie D - Group A
23.11.25	Lavagnese - Gozzano	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Club Milano - Lavagnese	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Lavagnese - Ligorna	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Imperia - Lavagnese	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Lavagnese - Sestri Levante	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
27.04.25	Vado - Lavagnese	0:1
14.12.24	Lavagnese - Vado	1:2
07.04.24	Lavagnese - Vado	2:2
26.11.23	Vado - Lavagnese	3:0
27.02.22	Vado - Lavagnese	3:0
20.10.21	Lavagnese - Vado	1:1
03.02.21	Vado - Lavagnese	4:2

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