Match Info

LATVIA: Virsliga - Round 33

Date: 20 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs (Valmiera)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	TV4
World	Onefootball app


	Valmiera		Liepāja

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	4.6
	1.55	4.2	5
	1.54	4.24	5.45
	1.58	4.18	5.18	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5
	1.53	4.05	5.05
	1.55	4.2	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.85)	4.12 ↑ (3.6)	5.04 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valmiera
59.5%

Draw
22.3%

Liepāja
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

25.5%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

24.5%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valmiera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valmiera's performance.

Liepāja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Liepāja might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valmiera than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valmiera that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Liepāja could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Valmiera - Liepāja Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Oss D. (G) 23. Tonisevs M. 36. Kragliks R. 5. Alekseiciks K. 27. Birka E. 34. Korobenko A. 22. Diop M. 10. Vapne L. 14. Varslavans R. 77. Porsan-Clemente J. (C) 24. Ndoye A.	12. Petkovic D. (C) 28. Kangars A. 22. Purtic S. 72. Babic A. 21. Grinbergs J. 91. Lausic M. 7. Doudou P. D. N. 9. Baghdasaryan A. 70. Patijcuks D. 11. Diaw M. 18. Aganspahic A.
Substitutes
29. Bahamboula J. 18. Dusalijevs N. 7. Gustavo 8. Kawasaki S. 30. Lucas Aruba 1. Olses C. (G) 41. Omori Y. 21. Penkevics K. 4. Veips R.	5. Chikovani N. 17. Evelons E. 8. Fall P. 13. Faye C. 25. Karasauskas A. 35. Kurakins V. (G) 14. Tidenbergs E. 2. Ziemelis R.
Coaches
Kalnins G.	Pertia T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Porsan-Clemente J. (Pen),
37', Korobenko A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', 0 - 1, Lausic M. ⚽,
63', Petkovic D. 🟨,
67', Vapne L. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
68', Diop M. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
69', Alekseiciks K. 🟨,
70', Aganspahic A. ↓, Karasauskas A. ↑,
70', Diaw M. ↓, Chikovani N. ↑,
73', Patijcuks D. 🟨,
74', Varslavans R. ↓, Penkevics K. ↑,
77', Porsan-Clemente J. ↓, Bahamboula J. ↑,
82', Kangars A. ↓, Fall P. ↑,
85', Korobenko A. ↓, Lucas Aruba ↑,
89', Penkevics K. 🟨,
90+1', Baghdasaryan A. ↓, Faye C. ↑,
90+4', Gustavo 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Valmiera won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Recently Liepāja have a series of guest games.

In this match Valmiera is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Valmiera won 10 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 26:16 (average 1.3:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Valmiera won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:5 (average 0.9:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valmiera FK
Latvian Virsliga
04.10.24	Grobiņa - Valmiera	1:4 ✺
28.09.24	Valmiera - Auda Riga	2:3 ✺
19.09.24	Riga - Valmiera	1:0 ✺
13.09.24	Valmiera - RFS	1:2 ✺
31.08.24	Valmiera - Metta	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLLW
- FK Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga
05.10.24	Liepāja - Auda Riga	2:1 ✺
29.09.24	Riga - Liepāja	1:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
25.09.24	Auda Riga - Liepāja	3:0 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
20.09.24	RFS - Liepāja	2:0 ✺
15.09.24	Metta - Liepāja	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
28.07.24	Liepāja - Valmiera	0:0
24.05.24	Liepāja - Valmiera	0:3
14.04.24	Valmiera - Liepāja	0:1
17.09.23	Liepāja - Valmiera	1:4
29.06.23	Valmiera - Liepāja	1:1
27.05.23	Liepāja - Valmiera	1:2
18.03.23	Valmiera - Liepāja	0:1

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