Match Info

Date: 17 February 2022, Thursday


	Varzim		Farense

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.25
	3	3	2.35
	3.05	2.95	2.33
	3.05	2.95	2.37
	3.31	3.09	2.46
	3	2.88	2.35
	3.13	2.99	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↓ (3.63)	2.98 ↓ (3.11)	2.36 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
30%

Draw
30.9%

Farense
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

29.8%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

22.8%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Farense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varzim that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+19.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Farense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.7%	25.2%	63.1%

Varzim - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 111 users predict this event. Varzim will win (votes: 13 - 11.7%). Farense will win (votes: 70 - 63.1%). It will Tie (votes: 28 - 25.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 54.1% – 72.1%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Varzim won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Farense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Varzim won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Varzim won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 2
13.02.22	Varzim - Leixões	1:1 ✺
08.02.22	Varzim - Nacional	0:0 ✺
02.02.22	Chaves - Varzim	1:0 ✺
30.01.22	Rio Ave - Varzim	1:1 ✺
22.01.22	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TTLTW
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
13.02.22	Farense - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
08.02.22	Feirense - Farense	4:1 ✺
03.02.22	Farense - Académica Coimbra	3:1 ✺
28.01.22	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	3:0 ✺
23.01.22	Rio Ave - Farense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.07.21	Farense - Varzim	0:1
Portuguese Liga 2
16.11.19	Varzim - Farense	1:3
10.03.19	Farense - Varzim	3:0
04.11.18	Varzim - Farense	1:1
10.04.16	Varzim - Farense	2:2
29.11.15	Farense - Varzim	0:0

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