Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 12

Date: 4 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Felgueiras

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.7	1.52
	5	3.75	1.57
	4.84	3.43	1.85
	6.11	3.77	1.6
	5.38	3.73	1.59
	5	3.6	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.26 ↑ (3.65)	3.66 ↑ (3.26)	1.62 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
17.6%

Draw
25.3%

Felgueiras
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

28.8%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

28.5%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Varzim's form might have worsened.

Felgueiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Felgueiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Varzim, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felgueiras than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Felgueiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Varzim - Felgueiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Varzim will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Felgueiras will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pereira T. (G) 3. Bonilla J. 14. Joaozinho 30. Moreira P. 9. Sangare M. 19. Santos Teixeira L. 23. Sinisterra J. 89. Souza N. 6. Ufala S. 29. Vasco Rocha 4. Xandao	24. Pinto B. (G) 77. Andrade D. 29. Banguera E. 9. Carlos Eduardo 21. Cassio L. 30. Feliz 8. Landinho 14. Lemos I. M. 11. Pereira M. 23. Ribeiro Sousa Peixoto R. P. 34. Silva A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Feliz ⚽,
33', Banguera E. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Xandao ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Moreira P. ↓, Pereira N. ↑,
54', 2 - 1, Bonilla J. ⚽,
56', Ufala S. 🟨,
58', 2 - 2, Silva A. ⚽,
65', Souza N. ↓, Braga V. ↑,
65', Santos Teixeira L. ↓, Pimenta G. ↑,
71', Andrade D. 🟨,
72', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Santos J. ↑,
72', Feliz ↓, Takahashi K. ↑,
72', Lemos I. M. ↓, Pereira G. ↑,
80', Ufala S. ↓, Dias J. ↑,
80', Cassio L. ↓, Moura M. ↑,
87', Sangare M. ↓, Areias R. ↑,
87', Andrade D. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
88', Vasco Rocha 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 3, Pereira G. ⚽,
90+3', Xandao 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 (Promotion: )).

Varzim is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Felgueiras is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Felgueiras is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Varzim won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Varzim won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
28.04.24	Alverca - Varzim	1:0 ✺
20.04.24	Varzim - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Braga B - Varzim	2:1 ✺
07.04.24	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:3 ✺
30.03.24	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLWL
- FC Felgueiras
Portuguese Liga 3
28.04.24	Felgueiras - Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
20.04.24	Alverca - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Académica Coimbra - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
07.04.24	Felgueiras - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
30.03.24	Felgueiras - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.24	Felgueiras - Varzim	1:0
28.01.24	Varzim - Felgueiras	1:0
29.10.23	Felgueiras - Varzim	2:0
20.01.23	Felgueiras - Varzim	2:0
17.09.22	Varzim - Felgueiras	3:0

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