Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Sporting Lisbon B

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.2
	2.14	3.15	3.2
	2.36	3.15	3.24
	2.27	3.16	3.26	Watch
	2.19	3.26	3.26	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.01)	3.15 ↓ (3.19)	3.19 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
41.8%

Draw
29.3%

Sporting Lisbon B
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

28.8%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28.6%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Sporting Lisbon B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Varzim will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Momo Mbaye (G) 3. Nuno P. 55. Ze Oliveira 4. Henriques L. 2. Pimenta G. (C) 8. Oliveira R. 22. Araujo C. 25. Chicao 19. Lopes A. 80. Gomes A. 99. Moshood M.	99. Silva F. (G) 95. Taibo Dominguez L. 43. Muniz J. 45. Moreira D. 53. Dias R. 77. Besugo R. 88. Mendonca M. (C) 90. Moreira A. 78. Couto M. 86. Nel R. 58. Goncalves F.
Substitutes
49. Costa P. (G) 13. Freitas R. 14. Graca H. 70. Lapas Montenegro L. M. 5. Milhazes A. 23. Monteiro J. 32. Pedrosa R. 10. Pereira N. 85. Rebelo M.	67. Anjos L. 60. Balde A. 89. Cardoso N. 80. Gomes L. 59. Kaua Oliveira 79. Marques R. 74. Pires G. (G) 65. Silva G. 82. Silva G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Araujo C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', 0 - 1, Goncalves F. ⚽,
65', Mendonca M. ↓, Kaua Oliveira ↑,
65', Goncalves F. ↓, Gomes L. ↑,
68', Pimenta G. ↓, Freitas R. ↑,
68', Chicao ↓, Rebelo M. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Araujo C. (Pen),
82', Nel R. ↓, Marques R. ↑,
82', Moreira A. ↓, Anjos L. ↑,
82', Moshood M. ↓, Pereira N. ↑,
83', Muniz J. 🟨,
88', Ze Oliveira ↓, Pedrosa R. ↑,
88', Araujo C. ↓, Graca H. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Varzim won 4.

Varzim is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Sporting B is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Varzim will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Varzim won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:4 (average 1.5:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Varzim won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:2 (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.25	Belenenses - Varzim	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Varzim - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	Lusitânia - Varzim	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Varzim - Amarante	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	São João de Ver - Varzim	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TWLLL
- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	3:0 ✺
22.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	1:3 ✺
16.02.25	Atlético CP - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	SC Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
29.04.18	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1
16.12.17	Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim	1:0
15.02.17	Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim	1:2
11.09.16	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	3:0
16.03.16	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1
31.10.15	Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim	0:0

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