Match Info

Date: 27 November 2021, Saturday


	Varzim		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.5
	2.45	3.25	2.65
	2.8	2.95	2.5
	2.75	3	2.55
	2.87	3.16	2.72
	2.7	3	2.62
	2.72	3.16	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.2)	3.11 ↓ (3.25)	2.58 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
34.2%

Draw
29.9%

Penafiel
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

28.6%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

19.2%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Varzim's form might have worsened.

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penafiel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varzim that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Penafiel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Varzim - Penafiel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 6).

Varzim has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Varzim won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 16-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Varzim won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Taça de Portugal
18.11.21	Sporting Lisbon - Varzim	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
07.11.21	Porto B - Varzim	2:2 ✺
31.10.21	Varzim - Vilafranquense	0:2 ✺
27.10.21	Varzim - Benfica B	0:2 ✺
22.10.21	Académico de Viseu - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLLL
- FC Penafiel
Taça de Portugal
19.11.21	Penafiel - Portimonense	0:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
07.11.21	Penafiel - Leixões	1:1 ✺
01.11.21	Farense - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
23.10.21	Penafiel - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.10.21	SB Castelo Branco - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
09.05.21	Varzim - Penafiel	1:2
10.01.21	Penafiel - Varzim	1:2
30.11.19	Varzim - Penafiel	1:0
14.04.19	Penafiel - Varzim	2:0
15.12.18	Varzim - Penafiel	3:4
10.02.18	Penafiel - Varzim	2:3
27.08.17	Varzim - Penafiel	3:0

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