Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 9 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Rodjeni (Mostar)

Referee: Christodoulou I. (Cyp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Velež Mostar		Milsami Orhei

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.82	3.25	4.20
	1.82	3.2	4.45	Watch
	1.86	3.26	4.35
	1.83	3.34	4.45	Watch
	1.78	3.2	4.3
	1.9	3.64	3.95	Watch
	1.86	3.35	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.05)	3.36 ↑ (3.3)	4.21 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Velež Mostar
50.5%

Draw
27.6%

Milsami Orhei
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

27.2%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

26.9%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Velež Mostar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Velež Mostar's performance.

Milsami Orhei has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Milsami Orhei might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Velež Mostar than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Velež Mostar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milsami Orhei than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Milsami Orhei could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.8%	13.8%	3.4%

Velež Mostar - Milsami Orhei Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Velež Mostar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Milsami (3.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Velež Mostar will win (24 of 29 users predict this - 82.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.01% – 96.51%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Velež Mostar (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Milsami (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ribic F. (G) 18. Duranovic S. 8. Hrkac A. (C) 13. Omerovic A. 7. Nukic A. 29. Babic A. 6. Abdullah R. 17. Shhade A. 11. Mesic A. 80. Stojanovic N. 9. Spahic A.	31. Dujmovic F. (C) 29. Asmelash H. 24. Muringen D. 4. Angelov A. 34. Decio Neto 30. Takyi F. 33. Fonkeu W. 5. Nwaeze C. 13. Luchita V. 20. Igor Souza 28. Kalabatama K.
Substitutes
55. Bajric A. 83. Besic M. 45. Djuliman K. 20. Halilovic D. 88. Ignatov L. 12. Mataradzic E. 21. Pajevic A. 10. Salcin D. 66. Setic F.	17. Bulmaga L. 11. Chele S. 9. Dudziak K. 10. Ginsari R. 21. Izountouemoi S. 14. Odubia P. 7. Silcenco C. 35. Vornic D. (G)
Coaches
Rahimic I.	Savinov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Fonkeu W. 🟨,
39', Angelov A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Shhade A. ↓, Besic M. ↑,
46', Luchita V. ↓, Odubia P. ↑,
53', Mesic A. 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Odubia P. ⚽, Kalabatama K. (A),
65', Mesic A. ↓, Ignatov L. ↑,
67', Asmelash H. ↓, Izountouemoi S. ↑,
68', Abdullah R. 🟨,
74', Muringen D. ↓, Chele S. ↑,
76', Odubia P. 🟨,
80', Stojanovic N. ↓, Halilovic D. ↑,
81', Nukic A. 🟨,
84', Hrkac A. 🟨,
90+1', Igor Souza ↓, Bulmaga L. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Ignatov L. ⚽, Besic M. (A),
90+4', Spahic A. ↓, Bajric A. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Milsami may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Velež Mostar is the team to beat.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Velež Mostar
Bosnian Premier League
26.05.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Velež Mostar	3:0 ✺
21.05.26	Velež Mostar - Sarajevo	2:3 ✺
16.05.26	Velež Mostar - Rudar Prijedor	4:2 ✺
Bosnian Cup
13.05.26	Velež Mostar - Zrinjski Mostar	1:1 ✺
Bosnian Premier League
09.05.26	Posušje - Velež Mostar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWTT
- Milsami Orhei
Moldovan Super Liga
04.07.26	Petrocub-Hîncești - Milsami Orhei	5:0 ✺
27.06.26	Milsami Orhei - Zimbru Chişinău	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Milsami Orhei - Sheriff Tiraspol	0:0 ✺
Moldovan Cup
13.05.26	Milsami Orhei - Zimbru Chişinău	0:1 ✺
Moldovan Super Liga
09.05.26	Dacia Buiucani - Milsami Orhei	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTTLW

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